Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/5/2017 (games through Saturday 3/4/2017)

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

The projected field as of March 5, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index thru March 4 games

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga Kentucky
2 North Carolina Louisville Baylor Florida
3 Oregon UCLA Butler Duke
4 Arizona Florida St West Virginia Virginia
5 Purdue SMU Minnesota Cincinnati
6 Notre Dame Maryland Iowa St Creighton
7 St Mary’s CA Oklahoma St Wisconsin Dayton
8 South Carolina Arkansas Miami FL Virginia Tech
9 VCU Michigan Wake Forest Northwestern
10 Marquette Wichita St Seton Hall Xavier
11 Michigan St MTSU Providence Vanderbilt/Rhode Island
12 USC/Illinois St. UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 Monmouth NJ Princeton Vermont Bucknell
14 Auburn Winthrop Valparaiso UNC Greensboro
15 FL Gulf Coast Northern Kentucky South Dakota UC Irvine
16 Jacksonville St E Washington Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Seton Hall Xavier Michigan St Providence
Last 4 IN Vanderbilt USC Illinois St. Rhode Island
1st 4 OUT Kansas St. Illinois Syracuse Georgia
2nd 4 OUT Iowa Clemson Indiana California
Advertisements

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/3/2017 (games through Thursday 3/2/2017)

Follow me on Twitter: @MikeReganNC

I expect to post additional analysis by conference this weekend.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid is the highest team in the ratings eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • Just because you’re in (or out) now doesn’t mean that if you win (or lose) you’ll stay there.

The projected field as of March 3, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Villanova , Kansas , Gonzaga , Kentucky
2 North Carolina , Florida , Baylor , Oregon
3 Butler , Louisville , UCLA , Duke
4 Arizona , Purdue , Virginia , Florida St
5 West Virginia , SMU , Minnesota , Cincinnati
6 Notre Dame , Iowa St , Maryland , St Mary’s CA
7 Creighton , Oklahoma St , Dayton , Wisconsin
8 South Carolina , Miami FL , Virginia Tech , Arkansas
9 Michigan , Northwestern , VCU , Michigan St
10 Wichita St , Xavier , Marquette , MTSU
11 Wake Forest , Providence , Seton Hall , USC/Illinois St.
12 Vanderbilt/Illinois , UNC Wilmington , Nevada , UT Arlington
13 Monmouth NJ , Princeton , Vermont , Valparaiso
14 Bucknell , Winthrop , New Mexico St , Belmont
15 ETSU , FL Gulf Coast , Akron , South Dakota
16 E Washington , UC Irvine , Tx Southern/NC Central , TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Marquette , Wake Forest , Providence , Seton Hall
Last 4 IN USC , Vanderbilt , Illinois , Illinois St.
1st 4 OUT Rhode Island , Kansas St. , Georgia , Clemson
2nd 4 OUT Iowa , Syracuse , California , Ohio St.

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 2/27/2017 (games through Sunday 2/26/2017)

Follow me on Twitter: @MikeReganNC

If you have questions on what your team needs to do to make the dance, send them my way and I will reply.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid is the highest team in the ratings eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • Just because you’re in (or out) now doesn’t mean that if you win (or lose) you’ll stay there.

The projected field as of February 27, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

1 Kansas , Villanova , North Carolina , Gonzaga
2 Kentucky , Louisville , Florida , Oregon
3 UCLA , Butler , Baylor , Arizona
4 Duke , West Virginia , Florida St , Purdue
5 Virginia , SMU , Notre Dame , Minnesota
6 Cincinnati , Oklahoma St , Wisconsin , Creighton
7 Iowa St , St Mary’s CA , Maryland , South Carolina
8 Miami FL , Dayton , Arkansas , Michigan
9 Virginia Tech , VCU , Michigan St , Xavier
10 Northwestern , Wichita St , MTSU , Providence
11 Seton Hall , Vanderbilt , Illinois St , USC/Marquette
12 California/Illinois , UNC Wilmington , Nevada , UT Arlington
13 Monmouth NJ , Vermont , Valparaiso , Winthrop
14 Princeton , ETSU , Bucknell , Belmont
15 Akron , CS Bakersfield , FL Gulf Coast , South Dakota
16 E Washington , UC Irvine , NC Central/TX A&M CC , Tx So/Mt St. Mary’s

Last 4 BYES Providence , Seton Hall , Vanderbilt , Illinois St
Last 4 IN USC , Marquette , California , Illinois
1st 4 OUT Rhode Island , Syracuse , Wake Forest , Kansas St.
2nd 4 OUT Houston , Clemson , Georgia , TCU

Final 2016 Regan NCAA Tournament Index

RANK TEAM W L TOTAL CONFERENCE
1 Kansas 29 4 1.73 Big 12
2 Villanova 29 5 5.52 Big East
3 Virginia 26 7 6.01 Atlantic Coast
4 North Carolina 28 6 6.03 Atlantic Coast
5 Oregon 27 6 7.13 Pac 12
6 Michigan St 29 5 7.76 Big 10
7 Xavier 27 5 9.29 Big East
8 Oklahoma 25 7 9.39 Big 12
9 West Virginia 26 8 11.00 Big 12
10 Miami FL 25 7 11.56 Atlantic Coast
11 Kentucky 26 8 13.99 Southeastern
12 Utah 25 8 14.85 Pac 12
13 Seton Hall 25 8 18.79 Big East
14 Purdue 26 8 18.82 Big 10
15 Texas A&M 26 8 20.67 Southeastern
16 Louisville 23 8 21.29 Atlantic Coast
17 Indiana 25 7 22.06 Big 10
18 SMU 25 5 22.51 American Athletic
19 Duke 23 10 22.85 Atlantic Coast
20 Arizona 25 8 24.30 Pac 12
21 Iowa St 21 11 25.86 Big 12
22 Maryland 24 8 26.05 Big 10
23 California 23 10 26.34 Pac 12
24 Baylor 21 11 26.58 Big 12
25 Texas 20 12 27.13 Big 12
26 Iowa 21 10 29.40 Big 10
27 St Joseph’s PA 27 7 29.99 Atlantic 10
28 Wisconsin 20 12 34.18 Big 10
29 Dayton 25 7 34.31 Atlantic 10
30 Notre Dame 21 11 34.60 Atlantic Coast
31 Providence 23 10 35.29 Big East
32 Connecticut 24 10 35.69 American Athletic
33 Gonzaga 25 7 40.47 West Coast
34 Butler 21 10 41.43 Big East
35 St Mary’s CA 26 5 43.62 West Coast
36 Oregon St 18 12 43.70 Pac 12
37 Texas Tech 19 12 43.72 Big 12
38 Pittsburgh 20 11 43.96 Atlantic Coast
39 Cincinnati 22 10 45.83 American Athletic
40 Colorado 21 11 47.71 Pac 12
41 Wichita St 23 8 50.00 Missouri Val
42 VCU 24 10 50.36 Atlantic 10
43 South Carolina 23 8 50.54 Southeastern
44 USC 21 12 51.87 Pac 12
45 Vanderbilt 19 13 52.50 Southeastern
46 Michigan 21 12 52.56 Big 10
47 St Bonaventure 22 8 52.90 Atlantic 10
48 San Diego St 23 9 53.80 Mountain West
49 Valparaiso 24 6 55.24 Horizon
50 Syracuse 19 13 56.82 Atlantic Coast
51 Florida 19 14 57.93 Southeastern
52 Temple 21 11 58.58 American Athletic
53 Tulsa 20 11 58.97 American Athletic
54 Ark Little Rock 27 4 59.33 Sun Belt
55 Georgia Tech 19 14 59.61 Atlantic Coast
56 UNC Wilmington 23 7 62.26 Colonial
57 Northern Iowa 21 12 63.05 Missouri Val
58 Monmouth NJ 27 7 64.10 Metro Atlantic
59 Virginia Tech 19 14 65.49 Atlantic Coast
60 Ohio St 20 13 65.86 Big 10
61 Florida St 19 13 66.11 Atlantic Coast
62 Houston 22 9 66.60 American Athletic
63 Georgia 19 13 66.80 Southeastern
64 Hofstra 23 9 66.80 Colonial
65 Washington 18 14 67.97 Pac 12
66 G Washington 23 10 68.69 Atlantic 10
67 Hawaii 25 5 69.96 Big West
68 Alabama 18 14 70.82 Southeastern
69 Chattanooga 27 5 71.98 Southern
70 Creighton 18 14 75.76 Big East
71 LSU 19 14 77.42 Southeastern
72 BYU 22 10 77.62 West Coast
73 Akron 25 8 79.45 Mid-American
74 Clemson 17 14 80.00 Atlantic Coast
75 Stanford 14 15 80.91 Pac 12
76 Marquette 20 13 80.97 Big East
77 Fresno St 23 9 81.05 Mountain West
78 Yale 21 6 81.78 Ivy League
79 S Dakota St 24 7 82.08 Summit Lg
80 Kansas St 17 16 82.11 Big 12
81 UCLA 15 17 84.37 Pac 12
82 SF Austin 23 5 85.49 Southland
83 Georgetown 15 18 87.80 Big East
84 Long Beach St 18 14 88.85 Big West
85 Mississippi 20 12 89.37 Southeastern
86 Princeton 21 6 89.64 Ivy League
87 William & Mary 18 11 89.80 Colonial
88 Davidson 19 12 91.73 Atlantic 10
89 Iona 22 10 92.15 Metro Atlantic
90 Stony Brook 24 6 92.41 America East
91 Arizona St 15 17 93.77 Pac 12
92 UC Irvine 23 9 96.53 Big West
93 Arkansas 16 16 97.38 Southeastern
94 Boise St 18 12 97.79 Mountain West
95 James Madison 20 11 100.36 Colonial
96 Northwestern 20 12 100.75 Big 10
97 NC State 16 17 101.08 Atlantic Coast
98 Evansville 24 9 101.47 Missouri Val
99 UAB 25 6 102.71 Conference USA
100 Grand Canyon 23 6 104.12 Western Athletic
101 Santa Barbara 17 13 106.53 Big West
102 Memphis 19 15 107.89 American Athletic
103 Northeastern 17 15 108.27 Colonial
104 Rhode Island 17 15 111.03 Atlantic 10
105 Richmond 16 16 113.27 Atlantic 10
106 IPFW 22 9 113.60 Summit Lg
107 Penn St 16 16 115.17 Big 10
108 Tennessee 15 19 116.25 Southeastern
109 Mississippi St 14 17 116.28 Southeastern
110 Illinois St 17 14 117.25 Missouri Val
111 ETSU 21 11 118.60 Southern
112 Oakland 21 11 118.78 Horizon
113 MTSU 22 9 119.65 Conference USA
114 ULM 18 13 119.87 Sun Belt
115 WI Green Bay 21 12 121.13 Horizon
116 Illinois 15 19 121.47 Big 10
117 Pepperdine 17 13 122.02 West Coast
118 Siena 21 12 122.75 Metro Atlantic
119 Nebraska 16 18 123.34 Big 10
120 UT Arlington 22 10 124.07 Sun Belt
121 Albany NY 23 8 124.25 America East
122 Ohio 20 11 125.37 Mid-American
123 UNLV 16 15 125.42 Mountain West
124 Buffalo 19 14 125.63 Mid-American
125 Belmont 19 11 125.98 OH Valley
126 Weber St 23 8 127.34 Big Sky
127 New Mexico St 21 10 128.46 Western Athletic
128 TAM C. Christi 23 7 130.12 Southland
129 Towson 18 12 130.94 Colonial
130 CS Bakersfield 21 8 131.44 Western Athletic
131 Louisiana Tech 21 9 132.01 Conference USA
132 Col Charleston 16 14 134.57 Colonial
133 UNC Asheville 20 11 134.62 Big South
134 S Illinois 22 10 134.89 Missouri Val
135 Wright St 20 13 135.40 Horizon
136 N Dakota St 18 13 136.12 Summit Lg
137 Oklahoma St 12 20 138.14 Big 12
138 Columbia 19 10 138.23 Ivy League
138 WI Milwaukee 18 13 138.23 Horizon
140 New Mexico 17 15 139.98 Mountain West
141 Old Dominion 22 13 140.35 Conference USA
142 Nevada 17 13 141.18 Mountain West
143 Wake Forest 11 20 142.36 Atlantic Coast
144 Vermont 20 13 147.54 America East
145 TCU 12 21 149.65 Big 12
146 E Michigan 14 15 149.69 Mid-American
147 Morehead St 17 12 150.29 OH Valley
148 Ball St 18 13 151.11 Mid-American
149 NE Omaha 16 13 151.23 Summit Lg
150 N Illinois 17 12 152.24 Mid-American
151 Winthrop 20 9 153.01 Big South
152 Toledo 16 15 153.13 Mid-American
153 Marshall 17 16 153.28 Conference USA
154 Duquesne 15 16 153.46 Atlantic 10
155 Kent 18 13 153.94 Mid-American
156 Massachusetts 14 18 155.25 Atlantic 10
157 WKU 16 16 156.15 Conference USA
158 Utah St 14 15 157.24 Mountain West
159 Auburn 11 20 157.30 Southeastern
160 High Point 18 10 160.09 Big South
161 C Michigan 14 15 160.19 Mid-American
162 Colorado St 16 16 160.55 Mountain West
163 Montana 18 11 160.65 Big Sky
164 Fairfield 19 13 161.87 Metro Atlantic
165 Fordham 16 13 163.22 Atlantic 10
166 ULL 15 14 163.80 Sun Belt
167 Oral Roberts 12 17 167.01 Summit Lg
168 Elon 14 16 167.13 Colonial
169 Tennessee St 18 10 169.25 OH Valley
170 Indiana St 14 17 170.29 Missouri Val
171 Tennessee Tech 17 11 170.83 OH Valley
172 Coastal Car 15 11 172.23 Big South
173 Lehigh 16 15 174.48 Patriot League
174 Furman 16 15 175.66 Southern
175 Murray St 15 14 176.49 OH Valley
176 Harvard 12 16 177.77 Ivy League
177 George Mason 11 21 178.12 Atlantic 10
178 W Carolina 13 17 178.35 Southern
179 North Florida 19 11 178.92 Atlantic Sun
180 Loyola-Chicago 14 17 179.99 Missouri Val
181 DePaul 9 22 181.61 Big East
182 Bucknell 16 13 182.30 Patriot League
183 Denver 16 15 182.74 Summit Lg
184 IUPUI 12 19 184.09 Summit Lg
185 Wyoming 12 18 185.67 Mountain West
186 Detroit 14 15 185.94 Horizon
187 Wagner 21 10 186.03 Northeast
188 Hampton 20 10 188.61 Mid-Eastern AC
189 Mercer 17 14 189.77 Southern
190 Radford 14 15 190.46 Big South
191 Austin Peay 16 17 191.02 OH Valley
192 Georgia St 14 14 191.18 Sun Belt
193 Army 18 13 191.51 Patriot League
194 Idaho 19 12 191.61 Big Sky
195 TX Southern 18 14 194.37 Southwestern AC
196 W Michigan 11 19 194.97 Mid-American
197 St Louis 11 21 195.50 Atlantic 10
198 Missouri 10 21 195.61 Southeastern
199 FL Gulf Coast 16 13 195.89 Atlantic Sun
200 Miami OH 12 20 196.28 Mid-American
201 New Hampshire 17 12 196.87 America East
202 Wofford 13 17 198.39 Southern
203 UCF 12 18 198.82 American Athletic
204 Sam Houston St 15 14 199.06 Southland
205 Navy 18 14 199.87 Patriot League
206 East Carolina 12 20 201.33 American Athletic
207 TN Martin 17 14 202.15 OH Valley
208 Bowling Green 14 18 203.47 Mid-American
209 San Francisco 14 15 204.31 West Coast
210 Boston Univ 17 14 204.98 Patriot League
211 Incarnate Word 14 11 204.99 Southland
212 South Dakota 12 18 205.07 Summit Lg
213 NJIT 16 14 205.40 Atlantic Sun
214 St Peter’s 14 16 205.48 Metro Atlantic
215 Tulane 12 22 205.52 American Athletic
216 E Kentucky 14 16 205.93 OH Valley
217 Washington St 8 22 205.97 Pac 12
218 UTEP 18 14 206.26 Conference USA
219 Charlotte 14 19 209.83 Conference USA
220 Gardner Webb 14 16 211.69 Big South
221 North Dakota 14 15 211.90 Big Sky
222 Loy Marymount 13 17 212.47 West Coast
223 UNC Greensboro 11 18 212.99 Southern
224 Southern Univ 19 12 213.00 Southwestern AC
225 La Salle 8 22 213.39 Atlantic 10
226 Minnesota 8 23 213.44 Big 10
227 Missouri St 12 19 214.13 Missouri Val
228 South Florida 8 25 214.21 American Athletic
229 Canisius 14 19 215.65 Metro Atlantic
230 F Dickinson 17 14 217.02 Northeast
231 Portland 11 20 219.31 West Coast
232 Manhattan 13 18 219.37 Metro Atlantic
233 Cal Poly SLO 8 20 219.80 Big West
234 St John’s 7 24 220.51 Big East
235 E Washington 15 15 220.61 Big Sky
236 Texas St 13 16 221.06 Sun Belt
237 UC Riverside 12 19 221.74 Big West
238 Air Force 12 18 221.98 Mountain West
239 Ga Southern 12 17 222.21 Sun Belt
240 Norfolk St 15 16 223.28 Mid-Eastern AC
241 S Carolina St 17 14 223.43 Mid-Eastern AC
242 W Illinois 7 17 224.55 Summit Lg
243 Santa Clara 10 20 226.02 West Coast
244 Rider 13 20 227.02 Metro Atlantic
245 South Alabama 12 19 230.71 Sun Belt
246 Pacific 6 20 233.39 West Coast
247 Jackson St 17 15 233.76 Southwestern AC
248 Drexel 6 24 234.90 Colonial
249 Samford 12 19 237.49 Southern
250 Appalachian St 9 22 238.79 Sun Belt
251 CS Sacramento 12 17 239.13 Big Sky
252 Colgate 12 17 239.35 Patriot League
253 Boston College 7 25 239.59 Atlantic Coast
254 Houston Bap 13 16 240.54 Southland
255 American Univ 12 19 240.99 Patriot League
256 E Illinois 11 17 242.42 OH Valley
257 Florida Intl 11 19 244.00 Conference USA
258 Kennesaw 9 20 244.79 Atlantic Sun
259 Holy Cross 14 19 245.13 Patriot League
260 Liberty 10 19 245.28 Big South
261 CS Northridge 8 20 245.41 Big West
262 UC Davis 9 19 245.69 Big West
263 Mt St Mary’s 14 19 246.15 Northeast
264 Alabama St 12 17 246.87 Southwestern AC
265 Idaho St 14 15 246.89 Big Sky
266 Montana St 13 17 247.52 Big Sky
267 Long Island 16 15 249.18 Northeast
268 Cornell 9 18 250.49 Ivy League
269 Penn 10 17 250.57 Ivy League
270 Lipscomb 10 21 250.78 Atlantic Sun
271 Arkansas St 9 20 251.27 Sun Belt
272 Dartmouth 9 18 252.15 Ivy League
273 Portland St 11 18 253.68 Big Sky
274 Rice 10 20 254.76 Conference USA
275 San Diego 8 21 254.85 West Coast
276 San Jose St 6 22 255.72 Mountain West
277 Seattle 12 16 255.96 Western Athletic
278 Loyola MD 9 21 256.33 Patriot League
279 St Francis NY 14 17 257.17 Northeast
280 Missouri KC 9 19 257.29 Western Athletic
281 Jacksonville 12 16 257.80 Atlantic Sun
282 Youngstown St 9 21 257.86 Horizon
283 Alcorn St 13 15 258.42 Southwestern AC
284 Sacred Heart 12 18 259.51 Northeast
285 CS Fullerton 8 20 260.69 Big West
286 Delaware 7 23 261.68 Colonial
287 Utah Valley 9 18 263.16 Western Athletic
288 Cleveland St 7 23 263.58 Horizon
289 Northern Kentucky 7 21 263.75 Horizon
290 St Francis PA 12 17 263.94 Northeast
291 MA Lowell 10 18 265.11 America East
292 Savannah St 14 15 266.73 Mid-Eastern AC
293 Stetson 8 22 268.05 Atlantic Sun
294 Rutgers 6 25 268.24 Big 10
295 Troy 7 22 269.22 Sun Belt
296 North Texas 10 20 269.72 Conference USA
297 Bethune-Cookman 12 18 272.94 Mid-Eastern AC
298 Robert Morris 10 22 274.50 Northeast
299 Hartford 9 23 275.58 America East
300 Campbell 9 18 276.43 Big South
301 Quinnipiac 9 21 277.00 Metro Atlantic
302 Charleston So 6 21 278.82 Big South
303 Drake 6 24 279.21 Missouri Val
304 N Colorado 8 21 279.38 Big Sky
305 FL Atlantic 7 24 280.49 Conference USA
306 Brown 7 20 280.62 Ivy League
307 Longwood 7 23 282.90 Big South
308 Jacksonville St 6 23 283.58 OH Valley
309 NC Central 10 19 283.77 Mid-Eastern AC
310 Edwardsville 6 22 283.92 OH Valley
311 VMI 6 21 284.04 Southern
312 Binghamton 8 22 285.15 America East
313 Presbyterian 8 20 285.88 Big South
314 Southern Miss 7 20 287.14 Conference USA
315 MD E Shore 9 22 287.81 Mid-Eastern AC
316 Marist 7 23 287.98 Metro Atlantic
317 Bradley 4 27 288.27 Missouri Val
318 Abilene Chr 9 18 288.45 Southland
319 Howard 10 20 290.30 Mid-Eastern AC
320 Morgan St 8 22 291.37 Mid-Eastern AC
321 SC Upstate 7 21 291.57 Atlantic Sun
322 SE Louisiana 10 21 291.70 Southland
323 Niagara 7 25 292.10 Metro Atlantic
324 Nicholls St 8 23 293.89 Southland
325 Alabama A&M 10 18 294.95 Southwestern AC
326 Citadel 7 22 296.27 Southern
327 Coppin St 7 22 296.36 Mid-Eastern AC
328 Maine 8 22 299.03 America East
329 Ark Pine Bluff 8 25 299.88 Southwestern AC
330 Lafayette 6 24 300.31 Patriot League
331 Bryant 7 23 300.35 Northeast
332 Prairie View 7 24 300.86 Southwestern AC
333 MS Valley St 8 27 302.59 Southwestern AC
334 NC A&T 10 21 303.19 Mid-Eastern AC
335 New Orleans 7 20 303.91 Southland
336 UMBC 7 25 304.27 America East
337 Cent Arkansas 7 21 304.53 Southland
338 Lamar 7 19 304.98 Southland
339 McNeese St 7 19 304.98 Southland
340 IL Chicago 3 25 306.91 Horizon
341 Southern Utah 4 24 307.02 Big Sky
342 Northwestern LA 5 19 307.44 Southland
343 Northern Arizona 3 25 308.06 Big Sky
344 SE Missouri St 3 24 309.00 OH Valley
345 UTRGV 5 22 309.63 Western Athletic
346 Delaware St 5 25 312.38 Mid-Eastern AC
347 UT San Antonio 4 26 313.33 Conference USA
348 Grambling 4 24 315.21 Southwestern AC
349 Florida A&M 6 21 315.93 Mid-Eastern AC
350 Chicago St 1 28 316.16 Western Athletic
351 Central Conn 4 25 318.02 Northeast

NIT Redux – Post NCAA Selection

Missed 3 NCAA Tourney teams.  Apparently St. Mary’s wasn’t even in the first 4 teams out!  Speechless!

Revised NIT field below:

1 St. Bonaventure S. Carolina Monmouth Valparaiso
2 San Diego St. Georgia Tech Florida St. Mary’s
3 Virginia Tech Hofstra Houston Florida St.
4 Ohio St. Georgia Washington George Washington
5 Alabama Creighton BYU LSU
6 Clemson Akron Marquette UAB
7 IPFW Belmont New Mexico St. High Point
8 North Florida Bucknell Wagner Texas Southern

Pre NCAA Selection NIT Projection – 5:40pm EDT

This might be the weakest NIT field ever.  15 of the 32 spots are taken by auto qualifiers, and the 24th through 32nd seeded teams (9 of the 15) wouldn’t have made it otherwise.

1 San Diego St. Valparaiso Syracuse Florida
2 Temple Georgia Tech Tulsa Monmouth
3 Virginia Tech Hofstra Houston Florida St.
4 Ohio St. Georgia Washington George Washington
5 Alabama Creighton BYU LSU
6 Clemson Akron Marquette UAB
7 IPFW Belmont New Mexico St. High Point
8 North Florida Bucknell Wagner Texas Southern

Final Field of 68 Projection by Seed Line

1 Kansas , North Carolina , Virginia , Michigan St
2 Villanova , Oregon , Oklahoma , Xavier
3 West Virginia , Miami FL , Utah , Kentucky
4 Purdue , Seton Hall , Texas A&M , Indiana
5 Duke , Arizona , Iowa St , Maryland
6 California , Baylor , Texas , Iowa
7 Wisconsin , St Joseph’s PA , Dayton , Notre Dame
8 Connecticut , Providence , Gonzaga , Butler
9 Pittsburgh , St Mary’s CA , Texas Tech , Oregon St
10 Cincinnati , VCU , Colorado , South Carolina
11 Wichita St , USC/Michigan , Vanderbilt/St. Bonaventure , Ark Little Rock
12 Northern Iowa , UNC Wilmington , Hawaii , Chattanooga
13 Yale , Fresno St , SF Austin , Stony Brook
14 S Dakota St , Iona , WI Green Bay , MTSU
15 Buffalo , Weber St , CS Bakersfield , UNC Asheville
16 Hampton , Austin Peay , FL Gulf Coast/Holy Cross , Southern Univ/F Dickinson

Last 4 BYES VCU , Colorado , South Carolina , Wichita St
Last 4 IN Vanderbilt , USC , Michigan , St. Bonaventure
1st 4 OUT San Diego St. , Valparaiso , Syracuse , Florida
2nd 4 OUT Temple , Georgia Tech , Tulsa , Monmouth

Please note that this is my official projection, however the final Regan Index will not be available until after the actual bracket is released.  I will post it here when it is available.

Sunday 3:30pm EDT Update – a change to the field!

With St. Joseph’s win over VCU, St. Bonaventure gets some credit too.  Their 2 wins over the Hawks become slightly better, and that small difference is enough to put them into the field instead of San Diego St.  It goes to show just how small of a difference there is between these teams.

It’s very close between San Diego St and Vanderbilt for the last spot.  I’m not sure whether or not I’ll be able to produce the final Regan Index rankings before 6pm EDT today, so my final field of 68 which I post by 5:30 today will be based on partial info from today’s games and my foresight on the impact of the results on the Index.  I expect to leave Vandy in the field, and send Steve Fisher’s crew to the NIT, but we’ll see what happens.  I didn’t think the Bonnies would move up either!

If Memphis wins, the Tigers will be either a 13 or 14 seed, and it would knock Vanderbilt out of the field.

My current seed projection for the field, with only the B10 and AAC games to go:

1 Kansas , North Carolina , Villanova , Virginia
2 Oregon , Michigan St , Xavier , Oklahoma
3 West Virginia , Miami FL , Utah , Kentucky
4 Purdue , Seton Hall , Texas A&M , Indiana
5 Duke , Arizona , Iowa St , Maryland
6 California , Texas , Baylor , Iowa
7 Wisconsin , St. Joseph’s, Dayton, Notre Dame
8 Connecticut , Providence, Gonzaga , Texas Tech
9 Butler , Pittsburgh , St Mary’s CA , Oregon St
10 Cincinnati , VCU , Colorado , South Carolina
11 Wichita St , USC/St. Bonaventure , Michigan/Vanderbilt , UALR
12 UNCW, Northern Iowa , Hawaii , Chattanooga
13 Yale , Fresno St , SF Austin , Stony Brook
14 S Dakota St , Iona , WI Green Bay , MTSU
15 Buffalo , Weber St , CS Bakersfield , UNC Asheville
16 Hampton , Austin Peay , FL Gulf Coast/Holy Cross , Southern Univ/F Dickinson
Last 4 IN Michigan , USC, St. Bonaventure, Vanderbilt
1st 4 OUT San Diego St., Syracuse , Valparaiso , Temple
2nd 4 OUT Florida, Tulsa , Georgia Tech , Virginia Tech

Regan Index – 3/13/2016 (includes games through Saturday 3/12/2016)

Follow me on Twitter: @MikeReganNC

A few notes:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid is the highest team in the ratings still eligible for the bid.  In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • San Diego St. remains in the field as the last team in, stealing the spot previously held by Temple.  The Owls loss pushes them to the 4th team out, so the spot was really stolen from the current first team out, Syracuse.
  • UNC grabs the #2 overall seed after their win over Virginia combined with Villanova’s loss. They are solid as a #1 seed.
  • It appears that 4 teams are in contention for the final two #1 seeds, and it’s very close.  Everyone is counting Villanova out, but I’m not sure why.  They were the clear #2 overall seed before a close loss to a very good Seton Hall team.  They are currently 3rd in the ranking, with Virginia 4th, Oregon 5th, and Michigan St. 6th.  At the end of the day, it’ll be an extremely close call, especially if Michigan St. beats Purdue today and improves their profile.
  • I will post a final bracket projection by 5:30 ET.
  • I will post an NIT bracket projection by 7:30 ET.

The projected field as of March 13, 2016 is below (in order from left to right on each seed line.)

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kansas , North Carolina , Villanova , Virginia
2 Oregon , Michigan St , Xavier , Oklahoma
3 West Virginia , Miami FL , Utah , Kentucky
4 Purdue , Seton Hall , Texas A&M , Indiana
5 Duke , Arizona , Iowa St , Maryland
6 California , Texas , Baylor , Iowa
7 Dayton , Wisconsin , Notre Dame , Providence
8 St Joseph’s PA , Connecticut , Gonzaga , Butler
9 Texas Tech , Pittsburgh , St Mary’s CA , Oregon St
10 Cincinnati , VCU , Colorado , South Carolina
11 Wichita St , USC/San Diego St , Michigan/Vanderbilt , UNC Wilmington
12 Northern Iowa , Ark Little Rock , Hawaii , Chattanooga
13 Yale , Fresno St , SF Austin , Stony Brook
14 S Dakota St , Iona , WI Green Bay , MTSU
15 Buffalo , Weber St , CS Bakersfield , UNC Asheville
16 Hampton , Austin Peay , FL Gulf Coast/Holy Cross , Southern Univ/F Dickinson

Last 4 BYES VCU , Colorado , South Carolina , Wichita St
Last 4 IN USC , Michigan , Vanderbilt , San Diego St
1st 4 OUT Syracuse , St Bonaventure , Valparaiso , Temple
2nd 4 OUT Tulsa , Georgia Tech , Florida , Virginia Tech

Regan Index – 3/12/2016 (includes games through Friday 3/11/2016)

Follow me on Twitter: @MikeReganNC

A few notes:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid is the highest team in the ratings still eligible for the bid.  In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • Michigan and VCU enter the field, replacing Tulsa and St. Bonaventure.
  • UNC grabs the 4th #1 seed (for now) after Oklahoma and Xavier both lose.  UNC will stay a #1 with a win tonight.  If they lose, Michigan St., WV, and Oregon will have a shot at the final #1 seed.

The projected field as of March 12, 2016 is below (in order from left to right on each seed line.)

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kansas , Villanova , Virginia , North Carolina
2 Oregon , Oklahoma , Xavier , West Virginia
3 Michigan St , Miami FL , Utah , Kentucky
4 Purdue , Texas A&M , Indiana , Seton Hall
5 Duke , Maryland , Arizona , Iowa St
6 California , Baylor , Texas , Iowa
7 Dayton , Wisconsin , Providence , Notre Dame
8 Gonzaga , Connecticut , St Joseph’s PA , Butler
9 Oregon St , Texas Tech , St Mary’s CA , Pittsburgh
10 Cincinnati , San Diego St , Colorado , Michigan
11 South Carolina , Wichita St , USC/Temple , Vanderbilt/VCU
12 UNC Wilmington , Northern Iowa , Ark Little Rock , Chattanooga
13 Akron , Hawaii , Yale , SF Austin
14 S Dakota St , Iona , Stony Brook , WI Green Bay
15 MTSU , New Mexico St , Weber St , UNC Asheville
16 Austin Peay , FL Gulf Coast , Hampton/Holy Cross , F Dickinson/Southern Univ

Last 4 BYES Colorado , Michigan , South Carolina , Wichita St
Last 4 IN USC , Temple , Vanderbilt , VCU
1st 4 OUT Valparaiso , St Bonaventure , Syracuse , Georgia Tech
2nd 4 OUT Tulsa , Florida , Virginia Tech , Georgia