Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of 3/4/2018– Games through 3/3/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Lipscomb ahead of FGCU even though dunk city is the #1 seed in the Atlantic Sun.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index as of 3-4-2018

The projected field as of March 4, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Xavier Duke
2 Kansas Purdue North Carolina Tennessee
3 Wichita St Michigan St Auburn Michigan
4 Cincinnati Texas Tech Gonzaga West Virginia
5 Clemson Florida TCU Kentucky
6 Houston Arizona Miami FL Texas A&M
7 Ohio St Seton Hall Arkansas Nevada
8 Missouri Virginia Tech St Bonaventure NC State
9 Creighton Rhode Island Oklahoma Kansas St
10 Loyola-Chicago Florida St UCLA St Mary’s CA
11 Texas USC Butler MTSU
12 Providence/ Arizona St. Baylor/ Marquette New Mexico St S Dakota St
13 Murray St UNC Greensboro Buffalo Vermont
14 ULL Northeastern Montana Bucknell
15 UC Davis Lipscomb SF Austin Wright St
16 Penn Wagner Iona/          Prairie View Radford/ Hampton
Last 4 BYES St Mary’s CA Texas USC Butler
Last 4 IN Providence Baylor Marquette Arizona St.
1st 4 OUT Louisville Syracuse Alabama Utah
2nd 4 OUT Oklahoma St Nebraska Boise St Notre Dame
Advertisements

Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of 3/3/2018– Games through 3/2/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Belmont ahead of Murray St. even though Murray St. is the #1 seed in the OVC.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index as of 3-3-2018

The projected field as of March 3, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Kansas Xavier
2 Duke North Carolina Purdue Michigan St
3 Tennessee Wichita St Auburn Cincinnati
4 West Virginia Clemson Gonzaga Michigan
5 Texas Tech Kentucky TCU Arizona
6 Houston Nevada Texas A&M Florida
7 Ohio St Arkansas Miami FL Seton Hall
8 Virginia Tech Creighton USC MTSU
9 Oklahoma Butler St Mary’s CA Rhode Island
10 St Bonaventure Missouri NC State Loyola-Chicago
11 Baylor Kansas St Florida St Arizona St
12 Louisville/Texas Providence/ Alabama New Mexico St S Dakota St
13 Belmont ULL Vermont UNC Greensboro
14 Buffalo Northeastern Montana Northern Kentucky
15 Bucknell UC Santa Barbara Lipscomb SF Austin
16 Penn Wagner Niagara/      Texas Southern Radford/ Hampton
Last 4 BYES Baylor Kansas St Florida St Arizona St
Last 4 IN Louisville Providence Alabama Texas
1st 4 OUT UCLA Marquette Penn St Mississippi St
2nd 4 OUT Utah Washington Syracuse Nebraska

Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of 3/2/2018– Games through 3/1/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Belmont ahead of Murray St. even though Murray St. has the better record in the OVC.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index as of 3-2-2018

The projected field as of March 2, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Kansas Xavier
2 Duke North Carolina Purdue Michigan St
3 Tennessee Wichita St Auburn Cincinnati
4 West Virginia Clemson Gonzaga Texas Tech
5 Kentucky TCU Michigan Ohio St
6 Arizona Houston Nevada Texas A&M
7 Florida Arkansas Miami FL Seton Hall
8 Virginia Tech Creighton Rhode Island USC
9 MTSU Butler Oklahoma St Mary’s CA
10 St Bonaventure Missouri NC State Baylor
11 Loyola-Chicago Kansas St Florida St Arizona St
12 Providence/ Alabama Louisville/Texas New Mexico St S Dakota St
13 ULL Belmont Vermont UNC Greensboro
14 Buffalo Northeastern Rider Montana
15 Northern Kentucky Bucknell UC Santa Barbara Lipscomb
16 Penn SF Austin Wagner/      Texas Southern UNC Asheville/ Hampton
Last 4 BYES Baylor Kansas St Florida St Arizona St
Last 4 IN Providence Louisville Texas Alabama
1st 4 OUT UCLA Nebraska Marquette Mississippi St
2nd 4 OUT Utah Washington Syracuse Temple

Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of 2/26/2018– Games through 2/25/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Belmont ahead of Murray St. even though Murray St. has the better record in the OVC.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index as of 2-26-2018

The projected field as of February 23, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Duke Kansas
2 Xavier North Carolina Purdue Michigan St
3 Auburn Wichita St Tennessee Cincinnati
4 Texas Tech Gonzaga Clemson West Virginia
5 Kentucky Michigan Ohio St Arizona
6 TCU Houston Seton Hall Nevada
7 Rhode Island Texas A&M Arkansas Florida
8 NC State Creighton Butler Oklahoma
9 Miami FL USC St Bonaventure Virginia Tech
10 Kansas St St Mary’s CA Florida St MTSU
11 Alabama Loyola-Chicago Providence Louisville
12 Missouri/Baylor Texas/      Arizona St. New Mexico St S Dakota St
13 ULL Belmont Vermont UNC Greensboro
14 Buffalo Northeastern Col Charleston Montana
15 Bucknell UC Santa Barbara Northern Kentucky Lipscomb
16 Penn SF Austin Wagner/    Prairie View UNC Asheville/ Hampton
Last 4 BYES Florida St Alabama Providence Louisville
Last 4 IN Missouri Texas Arizona St. Baylor
1st 4 OUT Mississippi St Syracuse UCLA Temple
2nd 4 OUT Boise St Nebraska Marquette Utah

Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of 2/23/2018– Games through 2/22/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Belmont ahead of Murray St. even though Murray St. has the better record in the OVC.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index as of 2-23-2018.

The projected field as of February 23, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Xavier Duke
2 Kansas North Carolina Auburn Purdue
3 Michigan St Wichita St Tennessee Texas Tech
4 Cincinnati Arizona West Virginia Clemson
5 Gonzaga Kentucky Ohio St Michigan
6 Nevada Houston Rhode Island TCU
7 Seton Hall Butler Texas A&M Virginia Tech
8 Kansas St Florida St Alabama Miami FL
9 Arkansas Missouri Florida Arizona St
10 Oklahoma St Mary’s CA NC State St Bonaventure
11 Creighton MTSU Loyola-Chicago USC
12 Providence/Utah Texas/Baylor New Mexico St S Dakota St
13 ULL Belmont Vermont UNC Greensboro
14 Col Charleston Buffalo Rider UC Santa Barbara
15 Bucknell Montana Northern Kentucky Lipscomb
16 SF Austin Penn Wagner

/Prairie View

UNC Asheville

/Savannah St.

Last 4 BYES NC State St Bonaventure Creighton USC
Last 4 IN Providence Texas Baylor Utah
1st 4 OUT UCLA Syracuse Marquette Mississippi St
2nd 4 OUT Louisville Boise St LSU Nebraska

Regan NCAA Tournament Index – Games through 2/19/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Northeastern ahead of College of Charleston even though CofC has the better record in the Colonial.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan NCAA Index through games of 2-19-2018

The projected field as of February 20, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Xavier Kansas
2 Duke North Carolina Purdue Auburn
3 Michigan St Texas Tech Wichita St Cincinnati
4 Tennessee Clemson Arizona Houston
5 West Virginia Gonzaga Nevada Ohio St
6 Texas A&M Kentucky Rhode Island Arkansas
7 Michigan TCU Missouri Arizona St
8 Alabama Seton Hall Florida Creighton
9 Florida St Butler St Mary’s CA Providence
10 Baylor Kansas St Miami FL Oklahoma
11 Virginia Tech MTSU NC State St. Bonaventure /UCLA
12 Texas/Syracuse Loyola-Chicago New Mexico St Belmont
13 ULL S Dakota St ETSU Buffalo
14 Vermont Rider Northeastern UC Santa Barbara
15 Montana Bucknell Northern Kentucky Lipscomb
16 Penn SF Austin Wagner/UNC Asheville Savannah St./Prairie View
Last 4 BYES Miami FL Oklahoma Virginia Tech NC State
Last 4 IN St. Bonaventure Texas Syracuse UCLA
1st 4 OUT USC Louisville Marquette Georgia
2nd 4 OUT Utah Washington LSU Temple

Initial 2018 Regan NCAA Tournament Index – Games through 2/15/2018

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (for example, right now I have Northeastern ahead of College of Charleston even though CofC has the better record in the Colonial.
  • This is based on the selection being today, not on what is projected to occur between now and Selection Sunday (which is on TBS this year – weird).
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index using games though 2-15-2018

The projected field as of February 16, 2018 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Virginia Villanova Xavier Kansas
2 Auburn Texas Tech North Carolina Duke
3 Purdue Cincinnati Michigan St Tennessee
4 Clemson Arizona West Virginia Wichita St
5 Gonzaga Ohio St Texas A&M Rhode Island
6 Nevada Houston Missouri Creighton
7 Oklahoma Alabama Florida Kentucky
8 Florida St TCU Providence Arizona St
9 Arkansas Seton Hall Michigan St Mary’s CA
10 Miami FL Kansas St Louisville Butler
11 MTSU Virginia Tech NC State Baylor/Texas
12 USC/UCLA Loyola-Chicago New Mexico St Vermont
13 Belmont S Dakota St ULL ETSU
14 Buffalo UC Santa Barbara Rider Northeastern
15 Montana Northern Kentucky Bucknell SF Austin
16 FL Gulf Coast Wagner Penn/Texas Southern UNC Asheville/ Savannah St.
Last 4 BYES Louisville Butler Virginia Tech NC State
Last 4 IN Baylor USC UCLA Texas
1st 4 OUT Penn St Temple St Bonaventure Utah
2nd 4 OUT Syracuse Nebraska Boise St Washington

 

Final Results – Regan Index vs NCAA Seed List

It’s one thing to predict all 68 teams correctly (most people did this year, despite ESPN’s best efforts to create a scandal because Syracuse wasn’t selected).  And it’s another to predict the seed line correctly (which the Regan Index also did for 42 of the 68 teams.)  But in my opinion the true measure is to compare the teams rankings 1 through 68.  Fortunately, the NCAA now releases their seed list, so this is possible.

Below is a list of teams ranked 1 through 68 (by my Index), and then the NCAA rank and difference from my rank.

In general it’s very consistent.  50 of the 68 teams are within 2 spots in the rankings.  I’m impressed with the committee this year.  However, as always, there were a few head scratchers:

South Carolina: Regan #40, NCAA #26.  This one is hard to figure.  The Gamecocks dropped 5 of their last 7 games.  So I guess they must’ve been really highly ranked by the NCAA before that.  Maybe even top 10, I suppose?  You have to somehow get to 26th after losing 5 of 7.  But still, a 7 seed versus a 10 seed isn’t that big of a deal.  So I’m willing to look past this one.

Rhode Island: Regan #33, NCAA #44.  URI ripped off 8 straight wins to finish the season, 6 of them not at home, and 2 of them over VCU. 44th would imply that they should be in the play-in game, since the NCAA had Providence 42nd and Wake Forest 43rd.  I’m guessing that the NCAA forgot to update their seed list after URI beat VCU, despite moving them out of the play-in game.

Middle Tennessee: Regan #38, NCAA #48.  This one bugs me the most, since it implies that the Blue Raiders were not going to get an at large bid if they hadn’t won the auto bid, and that it may not have been close, since if they had lost they’d fall in the rankings, and with a win they were only 48th.  This is an at large team for sure.  And the NCAA had Nevada 47th – ahead of MTSU.  Not buying that at all.

Other notables: Oklahoma St (NCAA had them 8 spots too low, imo), SMU (7 spots too low), Michigan St (7 spots too high), and Michigan (6 spots too low).

Regan NCAA Difference
Villanova 1 1 0
Kansas 2 2 0
Gonzaga 3 4 -1
Kentucky 4 5 -1
North Carolina 5 3 2
Duke 6 7 -1
Arizona 7 6 1
Louisville 8 8 0
Baylor 9 12 -3
Oregon 10 9 1
UCLA 11 11 0
Florida 12 14 -2
Butler 13 13 0
SMU 14 21 -7
Florida St 15 10 5
Purdue 16 16 0
West Virginia 17 15 2
Iowa St 18 20 -2
Virginia 19 17 2
Notre Dame 20 19 1
Michigan 21 27 -6
Cincinnati 22 22 0
Minnesota 23 18 5
Creighton 24 24 0
Wisconsin 25 29 -4
St Mary’s CA 26 25 1
Maryland 27 23 4
Arkansas 28 31 -3
Oklahoma St 29 37 -8
Dayton 30 28 2
Vanderbilt 31 33 -2
Miami FL 32 30 2
Rhode Island 33 44 -11
Virginia Tech 34 36 -2
Wichita St 35 38 -3
Seton Hall 36 34 2
Northwestern 37 32 5
MTSU 38 48 -10
VCU 39 40 -1
South Carolina 40 26 14
Xavier 41 41 0
Michigan St 42 35 7
Marquette 43 39 4
Wake Forest 44 43 1
Kansas St 45 46 -1
Providence 46 42 4
Nevada 47 47 0
USC 48 45 3
UNC Wilmington 49 49 0
ETSU 50 52 -2
Princeton 51 50 1
Vermont 52 53 -1
Bucknell 53 51 2
Winthrop 54 54 0
N Mexico St. 55 55 0
FGCU 56 56 0
Iona 57 58 -1
Kent St. 58 57 1
N Kentucky 59 59 0
Troy 60 60 0
North Dakota 61 62 -1
Jacksonville St. 62 61 1
New Orleans 63 67 -4
Texas Southern 64 63 1
South Dakota St. 65 64 1
Mt St. Mary’s 66 68 -2
UC Davis 67 65 2
NC Central 68 66 2

Final NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – 5:00ET March 12, 2017

My final bracket projection – this one includes the regions and slight adjustments for mandatory bracketing principles.

New York Kansas City San Jose Memphis
1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga Kentucky
2 Duke Louisville Arizona North Carolina
3 Florida Oregon Baylor UCLA
4 West Virginia Purdue Florida St. Butler
5 Virginia SMU Iowa St. Notre Dame
6 Cincinnati Wisconsin Minnesota Michigan
7 Maryland St. Mary’s Arkansas Creighton
8 Dayton Vanderbilt Wichita St. Oklahoma St.
9 Northwestern Virginia Tech VCU Miami FL
10 MTSU Seton Hall Xavier South Carolina
11 Michigan St. Rhode Island Wake Forest/USC Marquette
12 UNC Wilmington Kansas St./Providence Nevada ETSU
13 Princeton Bucknell Winthrop Vermont
14 Iona N. Kentucky New Mexico St. Florida Gulf Coast
15 Jacksonville St. Kent St. North Dakota Troy
16 Mt St. Mary’s/UC Davis Texas Southern S Dakota St./NC Central New Orleans