Final Results – Regan Index vs NCAA Seed List

It’s one thing to predict all 68 teams correctly (most people did this year, despite ESPN’s best efforts to create a scandal because Syracuse wasn’t selected).  And it’s another to predict the seed line correctly (which the Regan Index also did for 42 of the 68 teams.)  But in my opinion the true measure is to compare the teams rankings 1 through 68.  Fortunately, the NCAA now releases their seed list, so this is possible.

Below is a list of teams ranked 1 through 68 (by my Index), and then the NCAA rank and difference from my rank.

In general it’s very consistent.  50 of the 68 teams are within 2 spots in the rankings.  I’m impressed with the committee this year.  However, as always, there were a few head scratchers:

South Carolina: Regan #40, NCAA #26.  This one is hard to figure.  The Gamecocks dropped 5 of their last 7 games.  So I guess they must’ve been really highly ranked by the NCAA before that.  Maybe even top 10, I suppose?  You have to somehow get to 26th after losing 5 of 7.  But still, a 7 seed versus a 10 seed isn’t that big of a deal.  So I’m willing to look past this one.

Rhode Island: Regan #33, NCAA #44.  URI ripped off 8 straight wins to finish the season, 6 of them not at home, and 2 of them over VCU. 44th would imply that they should be in the play-in game, since the NCAA had Providence 42nd and Wake Forest 43rd.  I’m guessing that the NCAA forgot to update their seed list after URI beat VCU, despite moving them out of the play-in game.

Middle Tennessee: Regan #38, NCAA #48.  This one bugs me the most, since it implies that the Blue Raiders were not going to get an at large bid if they hadn’t won the auto bid, and that it may not have been close, since if they had lost they’d fall in the rankings, and with a win they were only 48th.  This is an at large team for sure.  And the NCAA had Nevada 47th – ahead of MTSU.  Not buying that at all.

Other notables: Oklahoma St (NCAA had them 8 spots too low, imo), SMU (7 spots too low), Michigan St (7 spots too high), and Michigan (6 spots too low).

Regan NCAA Difference
Villanova 1 1 0
Kansas 2 2 0
Gonzaga 3 4 -1
Kentucky 4 5 -1
North Carolina 5 3 2
Duke 6 7 -1
Arizona 7 6 1
Louisville 8 8 0
Baylor 9 12 -3
Oregon 10 9 1
UCLA 11 11 0
Florida 12 14 -2
Butler 13 13 0
SMU 14 21 -7
Florida St 15 10 5
Purdue 16 16 0
West Virginia 17 15 2
Iowa St 18 20 -2
Virginia 19 17 2
Notre Dame 20 19 1
Michigan 21 27 -6
Cincinnati 22 22 0
Minnesota 23 18 5
Creighton 24 24 0
Wisconsin 25 29 -4
St Mary’s CA 26 25 1
Maryland 27 23 4
Arkansas 28 31 -3
Oklahoma St 29 37 -8
Dayton 30 28 2
Vanderbilt 31 33 -2
Miami FL 32 30 2
Rhode Island 33 44 -11
Virginia Tech 34 36 -2
Wichita St 35 38 -3
Seton Hall 36 34 2
Northwestern 37 32 5
MTSU 38 48 -10
VCU 39 40 -1
South Carolina 40 26 14
Xavier 41 41 0
Michigan St 42 35 7
Marquette 43 39 4
Wake Forest 44 43 1
Kansas St 45 46 -1
Providence 46 42 4
Nevada 47 47 0
USC 48 45 3
UNC Wilmington 49 49 0
ETSU 50 52 -2
Princeton 51 50 1
Vermont 52 53 -1
Bucknell 53 51 2
Winthrop 54 54 0
N Mexico St. 55 55 0
FGCU 56 56 0
Iona 57 58 -1
Kent St. 58 57 1
N Kentucky 59 59 0
Troy 60 60 0
North Dakota 61 62 -1
Jacksonville St. 62 61 1
New Orleans 63 67 -4
Texas Southern 64 63 1
South Dakota St. 65 64 1
Mt St. Mary’s 66 68 -2
UC Davis 67 65 2
NC Central 68 66 2

Final NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection – 5:00ET March 12, 2017

My final bracket projection – this one includes the regions and slight adjustments for mandatory bracketing principles.

New York Kansas City San Jose Memphis
1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga Kentucky
2 Duke Louisville Arizona North Carolina
3 Florida Oregon Baylor UCLA
4 West Virginia Purdue Florida St. Butler
5 Virginia SMU Iowa St. Notre Dame
6 Cincinnati Wisconsin Minnesota Michigan
7 Maryland St. Mary’s Arkansas Creighton
8 Dayton Vanderbilt Wichita St. Oklahoma St.
9 Northwestern Virginia Tech VCU Miami FL
10 MTSU Seton Hall Xavier South Carolina
11 Michigan St. Rhode Island Wake Forest/USC Marquette
12 UNC Wilmington Kansas St./Providence Nevada ETSU
13 Princeton Bucknell Winthrop Vermont
14 Iona N. Kentucky New Mexico St. Florida Gulf Coast
15 Jacksonville St. Kent St. North Dakota Troy
16 Mt St. Mary’s/UC Davis Texas Southern S Dakota St./NC Central New Orleans

2017 NIT Tournament Projection

It’s like kissing your sister.  (Sidebar: Don’t try that, you’ll get locked up).  Most teams probably aren’t all that excited about going to the NIT, but someone has to go.  This year, 10 teams earned automatic bids and the remaining 22 spots will be filled by a selection process, one that is quite similar to the NCAA Tournament Selection, but gets little attention in comparison.

With Princeton’s win today, my projected NIT field is complete.  This was a tough process.  The Regan Index would have included 3 teams that have a losing record – Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown – as 3 of the at large bids.  The NIT has no current rule against selecting teams with losing records, and it has happened, but I’m guessing it won’t this year.  For that reason, I’ve excluded these teams.  Pitt and Tennessee have very favorable resumes for the NIT, so it wouldn’t shock me if they are selected.  Georgetown would be very surprising.

The 10 teams that earned auto bids:

Illinois St (unless they are selected by the NCAA committee), Texas-Arlington, Monmouth, Oakland, Belmont, UNC Greensboro, South Dakota, Cal St. Bakersfield, Akron, and UC Irvine.

My last 4 teams in (of the 22 at large bids): Richmond, Texas Tech, Boise St, Valparaiso (last in)

1st 4 out: Texas A&M (1st out), Colorado, Fresno St., Davidson

Others considered: Auburn, San Diego St., GW, George Mason, Memphis, New Mexico

Note that I moved Valpo into the field ahead of Texas A&M.  Alec Peters was injured and missed several important games, and Valpo ran to the final last year.  I’d personally put A&M in, but I’m trying to guess what the committee will do.

The projected field by region:

Midwest East South West
1 Illinois St. Syracuse Georgia California
2 Illinois Indiana Clemson TCU
3 Houston Alabama Iowa UT Arlington
4 Mississippi UCF Ohio St. BYU
5 Charleston Monmouth Georgia Tech Utah
6 Texas Tech Richmond Boise St. Colorado St.
7 Oakland Belmont UNC Greensboro Texas A&M
8 South Dakota CS Bakersfield Akron UC Irvine

 

 

 

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/12/2017 (games through Saturday 3/11/2017)

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the better conference record (ie, I have Troy in over Texas St for now).
  • No at large bids are up for grabs in the 6 games today.  URI is in even if they lose.  10 of the 12 teams that play today will be in – the Ivy and Sun Belt losers won’t.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index using games through 3-11-2017

The projected field as of March 12, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line – this is not a bracket!) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga Kentucky
2 North Carolina Duke Arizona Louisville
3 Oregon Baylor UCLA Florida
4 Butler Florida St West Virginia Purdue
5 Iowa St Virginia Notre Dame Cincinnati
6 SMU Wisconsin Minnesota Creighton
7 Michigan St Mary’s CA Maryland Arkansas
8 Oklahoma St Dayton Vanderbilt Wichita St
9 VCU Miami FL Virginia Tech Seton Hall
10 Northwestern MTSU Xavier South Carolina
11 Marquette Rhode Island Michigan St Wake Forest/USC
12 Kansas St./Providence Nevada UNC Wilmington ETSU
13 Princeton Vermont Bucknell Winthrop
14 New Mexico St FL Gulf Coast Iona Northern Kentucky
15 Kent Troy North Dakota Jacksonville St
16 New Orleans TX Southern S Dakota St./NC Central Mt St. Mary’s/UC Davis
Last 4 BYES South Carolina Marquette Rhode Island Michigan St
Last 4 IN Wake Forest Kansas St. Providence USC
1st 4 OUT Illinois St. Clemson Georgia Illinois
2nd 4 OUT California Syracuse TCU Indiana

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/11/2017 (games through Friday 3/10/2017)

If you’re like me, it’s one more day until Christmas week.  The week starting with selection Sunday and ending with 16 teams remaining for the chance to win it all is my favorite week of the year (much to the chagrin of my wife and kids – even my 13 year old son thinks I’m nuts).

This year seems about as clear cut as I’ve ever seen.  The teams that are going to get at large bids have separated themselves from the teams that aren’t more than usual, according to my formula.  Only one team not in my projected field (Illinois St) is close enough to have a legit argument.  While this isn’t necessarily an “exciting” finish to the selection process, I’m happy about it because there is something nice about a clear cut decision process.  I think there’s a good chance that the committee will agree (as will many of the other bracketologists out there, with the exception of Joe Lunardi, who has gone ape crazy on the ACC, and still has 7 loss UNC as the #2 overall seed and 18-14, RPI 84 Syracuse (2-11 in road neutral games) as the 4th to last team in – let’s hope the committee isn’t drinking what Joey Brackets is serving up).

I’ll be analyzing the upcoming selection over the next 30 or so hours and posting here and on Twitter.  You can send me any questions via Twitter @MikeReganNC.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners this week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index using games through 3-10-2017

The projected field as of March 11, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga Kentucky
2 North Carolina Duke Oregon Arizona
3 Louisville Baylor UCLA Florida
4 West Virginia Butler Florida St Purdue
5 Notre Dame Virginia Cincinnati Iowa St
6 SMU Minnesota Creighton Wisconsin
7 Michigan St Mary’s CA Maryland Vanderbilt
8 Arkansas Oklahoma St Northwestern Dayton
9 Wichita St Miami FL Virginia Tech VCU
10 Seton Hall Xavier South Carolina MTSU
11 Marquette Michigan St Wake Forest Rhode Island/USC
12 Kansas St./Providence UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 ETSU Princeton Vermont Bucknell
14 Winthrop Akron CS Bakersfield FL Gulf Coast
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Jacksonville St
16 North Dakota S Dakota St Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES South Carolina Marquette Michigan St Wake Forest
Last 4 IN Rhode Island Kansas St. Providence USC
1st 4 OUT Illinois St. Georgia Clemson Illinois
2nd 4 OUT Syracuse Indiana California Iowa

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/10/2017 (games through Thursday 3/9/2017)

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners this week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index using games through Thursday 3-9-2017

The projected field as of March 10, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Villanova Gonzaga Kansas North Carolina
2 Kentucky Florida Duke UCLA
3 Louisville Oregon Baylor Florida St
4 Purdue Arizona Butler West Virginia
5 Virginia Notre Dame SMU Cincinnati
6 Iowa St Minnesota Maryland Creighton
7 Wisconsin St Mary’s CA Dayton Michigan
8 Oklahoma St Arkansas South Carolina Miami FL
9 Wichita St Seton Hall Virginia Tech Xavier
10 VCU Vanderbilt Michigan St Northwestern
11 MTSU Marquette Wake Forest Kansas St./USC
12 Providence/URI UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 Princeton Vermont ETSU Bucknell
14 Winthrop CS Bakersfield Akron FL Gulf Coast
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Jacksonville St
16 E Washington S Dakota St Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Northwestern MTSU Marquette Wake Forest
Last 4 IN Kansas St. Providence Rhode Island USC
1st 4 OUT Georgia Illinois St. Clemson TCU
2nd 4 OUT Indiana Illinois California Syracuse

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/8/2017 (games through Tuesday 3/7/2017)

It’s easy for Syracuse – win today and they are in.  Lose and they go to the NIT.

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners this week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index based on games through 3-7-2017

The projected field as of March 8, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga North Carolina
2 Kentucky Louisville Baylor Florida
3 Oregon UCLA Butler Duke
4 Purdue Arizona Florida St West Virginia
5 Virginia SMU Cincinnati Maryland
6 Notre Dame Iowa St Minnesota Wisconsin
7 St Mary’s CA Creighton Oklahoma St Dayton
8 South Carolina Arkansas Wichita St Miami FL
9 Michigan Virginia Tech VCU Wake Forest
10 Marquette Seton Hall Xavier Northwestern
11 Michigan St Providence Vanderbilt/Kansas St. MTSU
12 USC/Rhode Island UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 ETSU Princeton Vermont Bucknell
14 Winthrop Akron New Mexico St FL Gulf Coast
15 Iona Northern Kentucky UC Irvine Jacksonville St
16 E Washington S Dakota St Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Xavier Northwestern Michigan St Providence
Last 4 IN Vanderbilt USC Rhode Island Kansas St.
1st 4 OUT Illinois St. Iowa Syracuse Illinois
2nd 4 OUT Clemson Georgia Indiana California

ACC Bubble Analysis

The ACC Tournament starts on Tuesday, with the first of the 3 preliminary round games tipping off at noon ET.  Ordinarily, I’d be able to wait until Wednesday to post this analysis, however the ACC is so deep this year that a few teams playing on Tuesday actually still have a chance at an at large NCAA Tournament bid (and these are the 10th through 15th best ACC teams)!

Quite a few ACC teams (8) have already locked up a spot in the NCAA tourney:

Current Seed Team
1 North Carolina
2 Louisville
3 Duke
4 Florida St
5 Virginia
5 Notre Dame
8 Miami FL
9 Virginia Tech

I hesitated to include Virginia Tech on this list only because they could still wind up playing BC in their first ACC tourney game (if BC knocks off Wake Forest on Tuesday).  That’d be a bad loss and move them down, but I think the Hokies would still make it.  Losing to Wake wouldn’t hurt them much.  Let’s say this – I reserve the right to reevaluate VT if the unlikely scenario that they play and lose to BC occurs (I have this as a less than 2% chance based on Kenpom).

Like VT, Wake Forest is currently also a 9 seed, but I didn’t include the Deacs as a lock because they definitely play BC on Tuesday.  Avoid the bad loss to BC, and Wake should be in even if they lose to VT the next day (beating VT would actually move them ahead of the Hokies, but we’ll discuss seeding another day).

Essentially, both VT and Wake will receive at large bids unless they lose to BC in the ACC tourney.

Syracuse is currently in my first four out.  The Orange have some really good home wins in conference, but that’s about it.  They currently have an RPI of 80 (that’d be the worst to receive an at large bid since the new RPI formula was created in 2005).  The main reason for the poor RPI is their awful road and neutral court performance.   They look like an NCAA tourney quality team if you watch them play, but they are going to need to beat Miami on Wednesday in the 8/9 game to improve their RPI and road/neutral profile.  Lose that one, and the 18-14 ‘Cuse will be watching the NIT Selection Show on ESPN News.

The good news for Syracuse is that I think beating Miami will lock up a spot for them.  It’ll improve their RPI and give them a solid win on a neutral court, fixing the two main issues with their profile (to some extent).  They’d play UNC next, and losing that one might actually help their RPI.  So for Syracuse, they need 1 win, and they are likely in.

Clemson is perhaps the most interesting discussion.  This is a team that looked like a surefire NCAA team before ACC play began.  But the Tigers have struggled through some very close, tough losses in the league, finishing in 12th place at 6-12 .  It might seem crazy to include a 16-14 (6-12) team in the discussion, but if Clemson can go on a run in the ACC tourney, it might be enough.  How much of a run, you ask?

I think three wins would likely do it, and four definitely would.  Three would mean wins over NC St., Duke, and Lousiville, all on a neutral court.  Even with a loss in the semis to UNC/Miami/Syracuse, the Tigers would be 19-15 with a conference record that would be much improved at 9-13.  Their RPI (currently 70th, ahead of Syracuse) would be in the top 50, and they’d have some really good wins on road/neutral courts when you also consider that they won at Wake Forest, S. Carolina, and Alabama.

Georgia Tech seems to have too much to overcome, but a 4 win run to the ACC final would be tough to ignore.  Despite being ahead of Clemson in the ACC standings, the Yellow Jackets lack the overall profile (RPI of 94, yikes) and are behind the Tigers as far as an at large bid is concerned.

Pittsburgh, despite having some pretty good metrics for a team with an overall losing record (RPI of 71), will need to win the ACC tourney to receive a bid.  The committee likely won’t give an at large bid to a team with an 8-15 record in conference, even with a run to the ACC final.

Other than BC (which we won’t even discuss), NC State has the worst profile of any ACC team, and unless they can pull off a miracle run for their lame duck coach, the season will end this week for the Wolfpack.

 

Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/6/2017 (games through Sunday 3/5/2017)

Illinois St. falls to the first team out, and is replaced in the field by Kansas St.  It’s not looking good for mid majors – it’s very possible that every at large team will be from one of 8 conferences + 1 for Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s.

From more likely to less, here is how I rank the mid majors at large chances:

MTSU (if they lose in CUSA tourney), Illinois St., UNCW, Nevada, UTA (if they lose), Monmouth.

MTSU and Illinois St. would essentially be toss ups to get in, with the rest unlikely.

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

The projected field as of March 6, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index through games of 3-5-2017

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga North Carolina
2 Kentucky Louisville Baylor Florida
3 Oregon UCLA Butler Duke
4 Purdue Arizona Florida St West Virginia
5 Virginia SMU Cincinnati Notre Dame
6 Maryland Minnesota Iowa St Wisconsin
7 Creighton St Mary’s CA Oklahoma St Dayton
8 Arkansas South Carolina Miami FL Wichita St
9 Michigan Virginia Tech VCU Wake Forest
10 Seton Hall Marquette Xavier Michigan St
11 Providence Northwestern Vanderbilt/Kansas St. MTSU
12 USC/Rhode Island UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 Princeton Vermont Bucknell Winthrop
14 ETSU Akron New Mexico St FL Gulf Coast
15 Iona Northern Kentucky South Dakota UC Irvine
16 Jacksonville St E Washington Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Xavier Michigan St Providence Northwestern
Last 4 IN Vanderbilt USC Rhode Island Kansas St.
1st 4 OUT Illinois St. Illinois Iowa Syracuse
2nd 4 OUT Georgia Clemson Indiana California