Final Results – Regan Index vs NCAA Seed List

It’s one thing to predict all 68 teams correctly (most people did this year, despite ESPN’s best efforts to create a scandal because Syracuse wasn’t selected).  And it’s another to predict the seed line correctly (which the Regan Index also did for 42 of the 68 teams.)  But in my opinion the true measure is to compare the teams rankings 1 through 68.  Fortunately, the NCAA now releases their seed list, so this is possible.

Below is a list of teams ranked 1 through 68 (by my Index), and then the NCAA rank and difference from my rank.

In general it’s very consistent.  50 of the 68 teams are within 2 spots in the rankings.  I’m impressed with the committee this year.  However, as always, there were a few head scratchers:

South Carolina: Regan #40, NCAA #26.  This one is hard to figure.  The Gamecocks dropped 5 of their last 7 games.  So I guess they must’ve been really highly ranked by the NCAA before that.  Maybe even top 10, I suppose?  You have to somehow get to 26th after losing 5 of 7.  But still, a 7 seed versus a 10 seed isn’t that big of a deal.  So I’m willing to look past this one.

Rhode Island: Regan #33, NCAA #44.  URI ripped off 8 straight wins to finish the season, 6 of them not at home, and 2 of them over VCU. 44th would imply that they should be in the play-in game, since the NCAA had Providence 42nd and Wake Forest 43rd.  I’m guessing that the NCAA forgot to update their seed list after URI beat VCU, despite moving them out of the play-in game.

Middle Tennessee: Regan #38, NCAA #48.  This one bugs me the most, since it implies that the Blue Raiders were not going to get an at large bid if they hadn’t won the auto bid, and that it may not have been close, since if they had lost they’d fall in the rankings, and with a win they were only 48th.  This is an at large team for sure.  And the NCAA had Nevada 47th – ahead of MTSU.  Not buying that at all.

Other notables: Oklahoma St (NCAA had them 8 spots too low, imo), SMU (7 spots too low), Michigan St (7 spots too high), and Michigan (6 spots too low).

Regan NCAA Difference
Villanova 1 1 0
Kansas 2 2 0
Gonzaga 3 4 -1
Kentucky 4 5 -1
North Carolina 5 3 2
Duke 6 7 -1
Arizona 7 6 1
Louisville 8 8 0
Baylor 9 12 -3
Oregon 10 9 1
UCLA 11 11 0
Florida 12 14 -2
Butler 13 13 0
SMU 14 21 -7
Florida St 15 10 5
Purdue 16 16 0
West Virginia 17 15 2
Iowa St 18 20 -2
Virginia 19 17 2
Notre Dame 20 19 1
Michigan 21 27 -6
Cincinnati 22 22 0
Minnesota 23 18 5
Creighton 24 24 0
Wisconsin 25 29 -4
St Mary’s CA 26 25 1
Maryland 27 23 4
Arkansas 28 31 -3
Oklahoma St 29 37 -8
Dayton 30 28 2
Vanderbilt 31 33 -2
Miami FL 32 30 2
Rhode Island 33 44 -11
Virginia Tech 34 36 -2
Wichita St 35 38 -3
Seton Hall 36 34 2
Northwestern 37 32 5
MTSU 38 48 -10
VCU 39 40 -1
South Carolina 40 26 14
Xavier 41 41 0
Michigan St 42 35 7
Marquette 43 39 4
Wake Forest 44 43 1
Kansas St 45 46 -1
Providence 46 42 4
Nevada 47 47 0
USC 48 45 3
UNC Wilmington 49 49 0
ETSU 50 52 -2
Princeton 51 50 1
Vermont 52 53 -1
Bucknell 53 51 2
Winthrop 54 54 0
N Mexico St. 55 55 0
FGCU 56 56 0
Iona 57 58 -1
Kent St. 58 57 1
N Kentucky 59 59 0
Troy 60 60 0
North Dakota 61 62 -1
Jacksonville St. 62 61 1
New Orleans 63 67 -4
Texas Southern 64 63 1
South Dakota St. 65 64 1
Mt St. Mary’s 66 68 -2
UC Davis 67 65 2
NC Central 68 66 2
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