Illinois St. falls to the first team out, and is replaced in the field by Kansas St. It’s not looking good for mid majors – it’s very possible that every at large team will be from one of 8 conferences + 1 for Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s.
From more likely to less, here is how I rank the mid majors at large chances:
MTSU (if they lose in CUSA tourney), Illinois St., UNCW, Nevada, UTA (if they lose), Monmouth.
MTSU and Illinois St. would essentially be toss ups to get in, with the rest unlikely.
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A few notes on my projected field:
- The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
- There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
- There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other. Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other. A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.
The projected field as of March 6, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.
Full numerical output of the Regan Index through games of 3-5-2017
|4||Purdue||Arizona||Florida St||West Virginia|
|7||Creighton||St Mary’s CA||Oklahoma St||Dayton|
|8||Arkansas||South Carolina||Miami FL||Wichita St|
|9||Michigan||Virginia Tech||VCU||Wake Forest|
|10||Seton Hall||Marquette||Xavier||Michigan St|
|12||USC/Rhode Island||UNC Wilmington||Nevada||UT Arlington|
|14||ETSU||Akron||New Mexico St||FL Gulf Coast|
|15||Iona||Northern Kentucky||South Dakota||UC Irvine|
|16||Jacksonville St||E Washington||Tx Southern/NC Central||TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s|
|Last 4 BYES||Xavier||Michigan St||Providence||Northwestern|
|Last 4 IN||Vanderbilt||USC||Rhode Island||Kansas St.|
|1st 4 OUT||Illinois St.||Illinois||Iowa||Syracuse|
|2nd 4 OUT||Georgia||Clemson||Indiana||California|