Regan NCAA Tournament Index 3/6/2017 (games through Sunday 3/5/2017)

Illinois St. falls to the first team out, and is replaced in the field by Kansas St.  It’s not looking good for mid majors – it’s very possible that every at large team will be from one of 8 conferences + 1 for Gonzaga/ St. Mary’s.

From more likely to less, here is how I rank the mid majors at large chances:

MTSU (if they lose in CUSA tourney), Illinois St., UNCW, Nevada, UTA (if they lose), Monmouth.

MTSU and Illinois St. would essentially be toss ups to get in, with the rest unlikely.

If you’d like to follow me on Twitter for daily update notifications: @MikeReganNC

You can also send me any questions via Twitter.

A few notes on my projected field:

  • The team assumed to get the automatic bid for each conference is the highest team in the ratings currently eligible for the bid. In other words, it isn’t necessarily the team with the best conference record.
  • There will likely be one or more bids stolen by conference tourney winners next week that wouldn’t have received an at large bid otherwise. So if a team is one of the last 4 in now, they will likely need to improve their profile to receive an at large bid on Selection Sunday.
  • There is significant separation between a few of the teams ranked next to each other.  Please look at the Index output linked below to see how close/far teams are from each other.  A difference of 1.00 between teams ranked next to each other is average.

The projected field as of March 6, 2017 (in order from left to right on each seed line.) Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index through games of 3-5-2017

1 Villanova Kansas Gonzaga North Carolina
2 Kentucky Louisville Baylor Florida
3 Oregon UCLA Butler Duke
4 Purdue Arizona Florida St West Virginia
5 Virginia SMU Cincinnati Notre Dame
6 Maryland Minnesota Iowa St Wisconsin
7 Creighton St Mary’s CA Oklahoma St Dayton
8 Arkansas South Carolina Miami FL Wichita St
9 Michigan Virginia Tech VCU Wake Forest
10 Seton Hall Marquette Xavier Michigan St
11 Providence Northwestern Vanderbilt/Kansas St. MTSU
12 USC/Rhode Island UNC Wilmington Nevada UT Arlington
13 Princeton Vermont Bucknell Winthrop
14 ETSU Akron New Mexico St FL Gulf Coast
15 Iona Northern Kentucky South Dakota UC Irvine
16 Jacksonville St E Washington Tx Southern/NC Central TX A&M CC/Mt St. Mary’s
Last 4 BYES Xavier Michigan St Providence Northwestern
Last 4 IN Vanderbilt USC Rhode Island Kansas St.
1st 4 OUT Illinois St. Illinois Iowa Syracuse
2nd 4 OUT Georgia Clemson Indiana California

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