It’s one thing to predict all 68 teams correctly (most people did this year, despite ESPN’s best efforts to create a scandal because Syracuse wasn’t selected). And it’s another to predict the seed line correctly (which the Regan Index also did for 42 of the 68 teams.) But in my opinion the true measure is to compare the teams rankings 1 through 68. Fortunately, the NCAA now releases their seed list, so this is possible.
Below is a list of teams ranked 1 through 68 (by my Index), and then the NCAA rank and difference from my rank.
In general it’s very consistent. 50 of the 68 teams are within 2 spots in the rankings. I’m impressed with the committee this year. However, as always, there were a few head scratchers:
South Carolina: Regan #40, NCAA #26. This one is hard to figure. The Gamecocks dropped 5 of their last 7 games. So I guess they must’ve been really highly ranked by the NCAA before that. Maybe even top 10, I suppose? You have to somehow get to 26th after losing 5 of 7. But still, a 7 seed versus a 10 seed isn’t that big of a deal. So I’m willing to look past this one.
Rhode Island: Regan #33, NCAA #44. URI ripped off 8 straight wins to finish the season, 6 of them not at home, and 2 of them over VCU. 44th would imply that they should be in the play-in game, since the NCAA had Providence 42nd and Wake Forest 43rd. I’m guessing that the NCAA forgot to update their seed list after URI beat VCU, despite moving them out of the play-in game.
Middle Tennessee: Regan #38, NCAA #48. This one bugs me the most, since it implies that the Blue Raiders were not going to get an at large bid if they hadn’t won the auto bid, and that it may not have been close, since if they had lost they’d fall in the rankings, and with a win they were only 48th. This is an at large team for sure. And the NCAA had Nevada 47th – ahead of MTSU. Not buying that at all.
Other notables: Oklahoma St (NCAA had them 8 spots too low, imo), SMU (7 spots too low), Michigan St (7 spots too high), and Michigan (6 spots too low).
|St Mary’s CA||26||25||1|
|N Mexico St.||55||55||0|
|South Dakota St.||65||64||1|
|Mt St. Mary’s||66||68||-2|