Regan Index – 2/29/2016 (includes games through Sunday 2/28/2016)

The projected field as of February 29, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Index

1 Kansas , Villanova , Virginia , Xavier
2 Oklahoma , Miami FL , Michigan St , North Carolina
3 Oregon , West Virginia , Utah , Duke
4 Maryland , Texas , Iowa St , Kentucky
5 Baylor , Iowa , Indiana , Purdue
6 Wisconsin , Texas A&M , California , Seton Hall
7 Arizona , Texas Tech , Notre Dame , St Joseph’s PA
8 Dayton , Pittsburgh , Providence , Colorado
9 South Carolina , Wichita St , Cincinnati , Vanderbilt
10 Oregon St , Syracuse , Connecticut , Butler
11 St Mary’s CA , Valparaiso , Tulsa , VA Commonwealth/Michigan
12 St Bonaventure/USC , Ark Little Rock , Monmouth NJ , San Diego St
13 Hofstra , Chattanooga , Princeton , Hawaii
14 S Dakota St , Stony Brook , Akron , UAB
15 SF Austin , Belmont , New Mexico St , Weber St
16 Winthrop , North Florida , Bucknell/Hampton , Wagner/TX Southern

Last 4 BYES Syracuse , Connecticut , Butler , Tulsa
Last 4 IN VCU, St Bonaventure , USC , Michigan
1st 4 OUT Gonzaga , Temple , Florida , G Washington
2nd 4 OUT Alabama , Stanford , Georgia Tech , Ohio St

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Big East Bracketology

The Big East currently has 5 teams in the projected field.  Villanova and Xavier have wrapped up spots even if they lose the rest of their games.  The real question is which team will win the conference tourney and lay claim to a #1 seed.  Since they’re currently ranked 2nd and 3rd overall, running the table would mean a 1 seed for either team, and it’s possible that both teams could grab 1 seeds if they play each other in the Big East final.  Villanova seems to have the easier path due based on remaining schedules (and since Xavier is currently down by 19 to Seton Hall at halftime as I type this, even more so.)

Seton Hall and Providence are both looking good.  Two more wins for either team would make them locks.  I think the chances are good even with just one more win.  Even though Providence has lost a lot of games lately, their non-conference performance was very strong, with the only loss to Michigan St.  Note: Seton Hall is up big on Xavier at halftime – I think this win will likely move them to the IN category.

Butler needs to keep winning.  The Bulldogs are currently the last at large team with a bye in my field, and they have two winnable home games to finish the regular season. Losing either will move them downward, and we know there will be some bid stealers out there, so that’d be bad news for Butler fans.  I think three more wins will leave Butler looking very good for an at large.  2 more wins will be dicey.  Only 1 more and I think it’s definitely NIT time.

Creighton and Marquette both have a lot of work to do.  Both teams still have several chances to get nice wins before Selection Sunday, especially Creighton.  If the Bluejays win at either Providence or Xavier, and then run to the final of the BE tourney, they might just get in.

I haven’t officially eliminated Georgetown because they still have a chance for several big wins.  However even with a 5-1 run to the BE tourney final, they’d only be 19-16 with a pretty bad RPI.  They would have one of the best collections of road/neutral wins out there if it happened,  but I still don’t think it’d be nearly enough.

DePaul and St. John’s are (obviously) both eliminated from at large contention.

Rank Seed Team W L G1 G2 G3
2 1 Villanova 25 4 DePaul G’town
3 1 Xavier 25 3 @Seton Hall Creighton
31 8 Seton Hall 20 7 Xavier @Butler @DePaul
35 9 Providence 20 9 Creighton @St. John’s
44 11 Butler 19 9 Seton Hall Marquette
62 Creighton 17 11 St. John’s @Providence @Xavier
73 Marquette 18 11 Georgetown @Butler
77 Georgetown 14 15 @Marquette @Villanova
175 DePaul 9 19
214 St John’s 7 21

Big 10 Bracketology

Since there are 4 Big 10 games this Sunday, I thought it might be fun to take a look at the teams and where they stand heading into the final week of the regular season and conference tournament.  Some teams are already in, others have varying levels of work to do, and a few have no chance.  The current breakdown:

Michigan St., Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, and Purdue are all IN.  Even if they lose all of their remaining regular season games and bow out in the first round of the B10 tourney, they will be in the field of 68.

Wisconsin is looking good.  If the Badgers win two more games and get to 20 wins they will almost certainly receive an at large bid.  19 wins might be enough, but it isn’t 100%.  If they lose out, they’ll likely be in the NIT with an 18-14 record.

Michigan is currently ranked 45th and that puts them in the play in game as the 4th to last team in the at large field.  They play at Wisconsin before finishing the regular season at home against Iowa.  This is a tough schedule, and so 1-1 would likely keep them in the field heading into the B10 tourney, where they’d need to win a game or two to stay in the field.  Losing both would mean that they’d need a long run in the B10 tourney to the semis, or even the final, to merit consideration.

Ohio St. could jump into the serious discussion with 2 wins over Iowa and Michigan St. to finish the regular season.    Even winning one of those would trend them upward towards the bubble, and leave the chance of a run to the B10 final and possible at large bid.  Anything less would not be enough.

Penn St. and Northwestern are currently both below the NIT cut line. If either team were to run the table and lose in the B10 final, it would certainly put them in the discussion, but I think they would likely still fall short.

Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota, and Rutgers are all eliminated from the at large discussion.

The table below shows the current ranks and seeds and remaining schedules.

Rank Seed Team W L G1 G2 G3
7 2 Michigan St 23 5 Penn St @Rutgers Ohio St.
13 4 Maryland 22 6 Illinois @Indiana
15 4 Iowa 20 7 @Ohio St. Indiana @Michigan
20 5 Indiana 23 6 @Iowa Maryland
22 5 Purdue 22 7 @Nebraska Wisconsin
24 6 Wisconsin 18 10 Michigan @Minnesota @Purdue
45 11 Michigan 19 9 @Wisconsin Iowa
64 Ohio St 18 11 Iowa @Michigan St
95 Penn St 15 13 @Michigan St N’western Illinois
100 Northwestern 18 11 @Penn St Nebraska
123 Nebraska 14 15
133 Illinois 12 16
181 Minnesota 8 19
299 Rutgers 5 23

Regan Index – 2/25/2016 (includes games through Wednesday 2/24/2016)

The projected field as of February 25, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kansas , Villanova , Xavier , Oklahoma
2 Virginia , North Carolina , Michigan St , Miami FL
3 Oregon , West Virginia , Duke , Kentucky
4 Maryland , Utah , Iowa , Iowa St
5 Texas , Baylor , Indiana , Purdue
6 Texas A&M , Wisconsin , Dayton , Arizona
7 Notre Dame , California , Texas Tech , South Carolina
8 St Joseph’s PA , Seton Hall , USC , Connecticut
9 Providence , Tulsa , Wichita St , Pittsburgh
10 Cincinnati , Colorado , Syracuse , Michigan
11 Vanderbilt , St Mary’s CA , Oregon St/Florida , Butler/G Washington
12 Ark Little Rock , Monmouth NJ , Valparaiso , San Diego St
13 UNC Wilmington , Hawaii , Chattanooga , Stony Brook
14 Princeton , S Dakota St , Akron , UAB
15 Belmont , SF Austin , New Mexico St , Weber St
16 UNC Asheville , North Florida , Bucknell/Hampton , Wagner/TX Southern

Last 4 BYES Colorado , Syracuse , Michigan , Vanderbilt
Last 4 IN Oregon St , Butler , G Washington , Florida
1st 4 OUT Temple , St Bonaventure , Alabama , Gonzaga
2nd 4 OUT Kansas St , UCLA , VA Commonwealth , Georgia Tech

Regan Index – 2/22/2016 (includes games through Sunday 2/21/2016)

The projected field as of February 22, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Index

1 Villanova , Kansas , Oklahoma , Virginia
2 Xavier , North Carolina , Miami FL , Michigan St
3 Oregon , Iowa , Duke , Utah
4 West Virginia , Maryland , Kentucky , Iowa St
5 Baylor , Arizona , Indiana , Texas
6 Texas A&M , Purdue , Dayton , Notre Dame
7 California , Texas Tech , Wisconsin , South Carolina
8 Seton Hall , Pittsburgh , Providence , USC
9 St Joseph’s PA , Connecticut , Florida , Wichita St
10 Tulsa , Cincinnati , Syracuse , Butler
11 Oregon St , St Mary’s CA , Alabama/Colorado , Temple/Michigan
12 Valparaiso , Monmouth NJ , Ark Little Rock , San Diego St
13 UNC Wilmington , Hawaii , Stony Brook , Chattanooga
14 Princeton , Akron , S Dakota St , UAB
15 Belmont , SF Austin , New Mexico St , Weber St
16 UNC Asheville , North Florida , Bucknell/Hampton , Wagner/TX Southern

Last 4 BYES Cincinnati , Syracuse , Butler , Oregon St
Last 4 IN Alabama , Temple , Michigan , Colorado
1st 4 OUT VA Commonwealth , St Bonaventure , G Washington , Vanderbilt
2nd 4 OUT Gonzaga , UCLA , Creighton , Washington

Regan Index – 2/20/2016 (includes games through Friday 2/19/2016)

The projected field as of February 20, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Index

1 Villanova , Kansas , Virginia , Xavier
2 Oklahoma , Miami FL , Michigan St , North Carolina
3 Duke , Oregon , West Virginia , Iowa
4 Kentucky , Maryland , Iowa St , Dayton
5 Texas , Utah , Arizona , Purdue
6 Notre Dame , Baylor , Indiana , Texas A&M
7 St Joseph’s PA , Connecticut , California , USC
8 Wisconsin , Seton Hall , Providence , Texas Tech
9 Florida , Syracuse , South Carolina , Alabama
10 Butler , Colorado , Tulsa , Michigan
11 Wichita St , Valparaiso , Pittsburgh/VA Commonwealth , Oregon St/Cincinnati
12 Gonzaga , Monmouth NJ , Ark Little Rock , Chattanooga
13 San Diego St , UNC Wilmington , Princeton , Stony Brook
14 Hawaii , Akron , S Dakota St , UAB
15 Belmont , SF Austin , New Mexico St , UNC Asheville
16 Weber St , North Florida , Navy/Hampton , Wagner/Southern Univ

Last 4 BYES Butler , Colorado , Tulsa , Michigan
Last 4 IN Pittsburgh , Oregon St , Cincinnati , VA Commonwealth
1st 4 OUT G Washington , Temple , Florida St , Creighton
2nd 4 OUT Vanderbilt , Clemson , LSU , St Mary’s CA

Regan Index – 2/18/2016 (includes games through Wednesday 2/17/2016)

The projected field as of today, February 18, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Index

1 Villanova , Kansas , Virginia , Xavier
2 Oklahoma , Miami FL , Michigan St , Maryland
3 North Carolina , Oregon , Duke , West Virginia
4 Iowa , Kentucky , Iowa St , Texas
5 Dayton , Arizona , Purdue , Notre Dame
6 Utah , Baylor , Texas A&M , Indiana
7 St Joseph’s PA , Wisconsin , USC , Seton Hall
8 Providence , Syracuse , Texas Tech , Florida
9 California , South Carolina , Connecticut , Alabama
10 Colorado , Michigan , Butler , Cincinnati
11 Wichita St , Monmouth NJ , Pittsburgh/VA Commonwealth , Oregon St/Tulsa
12 Gonzaga , Chattanooga , San Diego St , UNC Wilmington
13 Ark Little Rock , Valparaiso , Akron , Stony Brook
14 Hawaii , Yale , S Dakota St , UAB
15 Belmont , SF Austin , New Mexico St , Weber St
16 UNC Asheville , NJIT , Navy/Hampton , Southern Univ/Wagner

Last 4 BYES Colorado , Michigan , Butler , Cincinnati
Last 4 IN Pittsburgh , Oregon St , Tulsa , VA Commonwealth
1st 4 OUT G Washington , Temple , Florida St , UCLA
2nd 4 OUT Creighton , Washington , Vanderbilt , Clemson

Initial 2016 Regan NCAA Tournament Index (includes games through Sunday 2/14/2016)

The projected field based on the 2016 Regan NCAA Tournament Index as of February 15, 2016 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Villanova , Kansas , Oklahoma , Virginia
2 Xavier , North Carolina , Iowa , Miami FL
3 West Virginia , Maryland , Michigan St , Oregon
4 Kentucky , Iowa St , Dayton , Duke
5 Texas , Notre Dame , Arizona , Purdue
6 Utah , Indiana , Texas A&M , Baylor
7 Wisconsin , South Carolina , Syracuse , Providence
8 USC , St Joseph’s PA , California , Connecticut
9 Colorado , Seton Hall , Florida , Michigan
10 Texas Tech , Pittsburgh , Monmouth NJ , Cincinnati
11 Oregon St , Wichita St , Alabama/Florida St , Tulsa/Butler
12 Gonzaga , Chattanooga , UNC Wilmington , San Diego St
13 Ark Little Rock , Valparaiso , Stony Brook , Akron
14 Hawaii , Princeton , S Dakota St , UAB
15 Belmont , SF Austin , New Mexico St , Weber St
16 UNC Asheville , Navy , North Florida/Wagner , Southern Univ/Hampton

Last 4 BYES Texas Tech , Pittsburgh , Cincinnati , Oregon St
Last 4 IN Alabama , Tulsa , Butler , Florida St
1st 4 OUT Creighton , St Bonaventure , Vanderbilt , LSU
2nd 4 OUT VA Commonwealth , Temple , St Mary’s CA , UCLA