Final 2015 Regan NCAA Tournament Index – 3/16/2015 (includes games through Sunday 3/15/2015)

The final 2015 Regan NCAA Tournament Index (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  The Regan Index predicted 34 of the 36 at large bids correctly, missing on Indiana and UCLA – the Regan Index placed Colorado St. and Miami Florida in the field instead.

Full numerical output of the Final 2015 Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Final 2015 Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Wisconsin , Villanova , Arizona
2 Duke , Virginia , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Iowa St , Notre Dame , North Carolina , Baylor
4 Oklahoma , Maryland , Northern Iowa , Michigan St
5 Louisville , VA Commonwealth , Providence , Arkansas
6 Utah , SMU , Wichita St , West Virginia
7 Georgetown , Butler , Xavier , Oregon
8 San Diego St , Iowa , Ohio St , NC State
9 St John’s , Davidson , Georgia , Texas
10 LSU , Purdue , Cincinnati , Oklahoma St
11 BYU , Mississippi , SF Austin , Dayton/Boise St
12 Colorado St/Miami FL , Valparaiso , Wofford , Wyoming
13 Buffalo , Harvard , Georgia St , E Washington
14 Northeastern , Albany NY , UC Irvine , New Mexico St
15 UAB , S Dakota St , Belmont , North Florida
16 TX Southern , Coastal Car , Manhattan/Lafayette , Robert Morris/Hampton

Last 4 BYES Cincinnati , Oklahoma St , BYU , Mississippi
Last 4 IN Dayton , Boise St , Colorado St , Miami FL
1st 4 OUT Temple , Indiana , UCLA , Texas A&M
2nd 4 OUT Illinois , Connecticut , Old Dominion , Richmond

Final 2015 Seed Projection

The final version of the Regan Index will not be available until Monday when I have access to all of the metrics that go into it, however I’ve estimated the impact of today’s games to come up with the final projected seedings below.  The outliers versus the bracket matrix are:

Arizona as a 1 and Duke as a 2

UNC as a 3 and Maryland as a 4

Miami FL in the field instead of Temple.

We will find out soon!

1 Kentucky , Villanova , Wisconsin , Arizona
2 Duke , Virginia , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Iowa St , Notre Dame , North Carolina , Baylor
4 Oklahoma , Maryland , Northern Iowa , Michigan St.
5 Louisville , Providence , Utah , Wichita St.
6 VCU , Arkansas , SMU , West Virginia
7 Georgetown , Butler , Xavier , Oregon
8 San Diego St , Iowa , Ohio St , NC State
9 St John’s , Georgia , Davidson , LSU
10 Texas , Purdue , Cincinnati , Dayton
11 Oklahoma St , BYU , SF Austin , Mississippi/Boise St
12 Colorado St/Miami FL , Valparaiso , Wofford , Wyoming
13 Buffalo , Harvard , Georgia St , E Washington
14 Northeastern , Albany NY , UC Irvine , New Mexico St
15 UAB , Belmont , N Dakota St , North Florida
16 TX Southern , Coastal Car , Manhattan/Lafayette , Robert Morris/Hampton

Last 4 BYES Cincinnati , Dayton , Oklahoma St , BYU
Last 4 IN Mississippi , Boise St , Colorado St , Miami FL
1st 4 OUT Indiana , Temple , UCLA , Texas A&M
2nd 4 OUT Illinois , Old Dominion , Connecticut , Stanford

Projected 2015 NIT Field

The NIT will include the 12 regular season conference champions that do not receive an NCAA tournament bid.  12 is as many as I can remember from prior years, so the NIT will have some interesting first round matchups.  My projection:

1 Indiana, Temple, UCLA, Texas A&M

2 Illinois, UConn, Old Dominion, Stanford

3 Richmond, Tulsa, Florida, Kansas St.

4 Green Bay, Michigan, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

5 Minnesota, C Michigan, Pittsburgh, St. Mary’s

6 Rhode Island, Murray St., Louisiana Tech, Iona

7 UC Davis, William & Mary, S Dakota St, NC Central

8 Montana, St. Francis NY, Bucknell, Charleston Southern

Regan Index – 3/15/2015 (includes games through Saturday 3/14/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 15, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Villanova , Wisconsin , Arizona
2 Duke , Virginia , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Iowa St , Notre Dame , North Carolina , Baylor
4 Oklahoma , Maryland , Michigan St , Northern Iowa
5 Louisville , Arkansas , Providence , Utah
6 Wichita St , VA Commonwealth , West Virginia , SMU
7 Georgetown , Butler , Xavier , Oregon
8 San Diego St , Iowa , Ohio St , NC State
9 St John’s , Georgia , Davidson , LSU
10 Texas , Purdue , Dayton , Cincinnati
11 Oklahoma St , BYU , SF Austin , Mississippi/Boise St
12 Colorado St/Miami FL , Valparaiso , Wofford , Wyoming
13 Buffalo , Harvard , Georgia St , E Washington
14 Northeastern , Albany NY , UC Irvine , New Mexico St
15 UAB , Belmont , N Dakota St , North Florida
16 TX Southern , Coastal Car , Manhattan/Lafayette , Robert Morris/Hampton

Last 4 BYES Dayton , Cincinnati , Oklahoma St , BYU
Last 4 IN Mississippi , Boise St , Colorado St , Miami FL
1st 4 OUT Indiana , Temple , UCLA , Connecticut
2nd 4 OUT Texas A&M , Illinois , Old Dominion , Stanford

Regan Index – 3/14/2015 (includes games through Friday 3/13/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 14, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Villanova , Wisconsin , Duke
2 Arizona , Kansas , Virginia , Gonzaga
3 Iowa St , Notre Dame , North Carolina , Oklahoma
4 Baylor , Maryland , Northern Iowa , Louisville
5 Michigan St , Providence , Utah , Wichita St
6 West Virginia , Arkansas , Georgetown , Xavier
7 Butler , Oregon , VA Commonwealth , SMU
8 San Diego St , Davidson , Ohio St , Iowa
9 Georgia , NC State , St John’s , Purdue
10 LSU , Texas , Cincinnati , Oklahoma St
11 BYU , Dayton , Mississippi , Temple/Colorado St
12 Boise St/Miami FL , SF Austin , Valparaiso , Wofford
13 C Michigan , Yale , Georgia St , Northeastern
14 E Washington , Albany NY , Hawaii , New Mexico St
15 Belmont , North Florida , MTSU , N Dakota St
16 TX Southern , Coastal Car , Manhattan/Lafayette , Robert Morris/Delaware St

Last 4 BYES Oklahoma St , BYU , Dayton , Mississippi
Last 4 IN Temple , Colorado St , Boise St , Miami FL
1st 4 OUT Indiana , UCLA , Texas A&M , Illinois
2nd 4 OUT Tulsa , Old Dominion , Richmond , Connecticut

Bubble Analysis – 3/13/2015

With only 2 days of basketball remaining before the committee selects 36 at large teams and seeds the 68 team field, it’s time to take a more in depth look at the teams fighting for the final at large spots.  Below is a cross section of the Regan Index that I’ve pulled for the teams just above and below the cut line:

SEED     RANK     TEAM            W  L   TOTAL    CONFERENCE          BID TYPE
10          39       Purdue            20 – 11 41.73             Big 10                  At-Large
10          40       Oklahoma St   17 – 13 44.25             Big 12                  At-Large
11          41       Boise St           23 – 7   44.41            Mountain West     At-Large
11          42       Colorado St     26 – 5   44.87            Mountain West     At-Large
11          43       BYU                 23 – 9   45.82            West Coast          At-Large
11          44       Mississippi      20 – 12  48.07            Southeastern       Play-In
11          45       Dayton             23 – 7   49.06           Atlantic 10            Play-In
12          46       Miami FL         21 – 12  50.64           Atlantic Coast       Play-In
12          47       Indiana           20 – 12   50.64           Big 10                   Play-In


x            48      Temple             22 – 9    51.12           American Athletic
x            49      UCLA               20 – 12  52.54           Pac 12
12          50      SF Austin         24 – 4    59.07           Southland               Auto
x            51      Richmond        19 – 12  60.13           Atlantic 10
x            52     Texas A&M        20 – 11  60.31           Southeastern
12          53     Valparaiso        25 – 5    61.31           Horizon                    Auto
x            54     Illinois               19 – 13  61.80           Big 10
x            55     Syracuse          18 – 13  61.99           Atlantic Coast         Ineligible
x            56     Old Dominion    24 – 7   62.58           Conference USA
x            57     Tulsa                 21 – 8   62.71           American Athletic
x            58     Stanford           19 – 13  64.29           Pac 12

To get you situated, 47 Indiana is the last team in the field, and 48 Temple is the first team out (below the line).  Both 50 SF Austin and 53 Valparaiso are below the line, but in the field as automatic qualifiers (Valpo has already won the Horizon tourney, and I’m assuming here that SFA will win the Southland – if they don’t, they’ll fall and won’t get an at large bid).  55 Syracuse is listed as the 6th team out, but the Orange have declared themselves ineligible and are not in the discussion.  Ok, now the good stuff.

I want to draw your attention to the column titled “TOTAL”.  This is the numerical rating that my formula produces for each team that is then used to rank the teams.  One good thing about having this TOTAL in addition to the ranking is that you can see just how closely teams are grouped (or how far apart they really are).  In general, teams ranked next to each other should on average have a difference in TOTAL of about 1.00.  Less than that and they are pretty close, significantly more and not so much

The last 2 teams in my field, 47 Indiana and 46 Miami FL, are exactly tied.  The TOTAL is rounded, so actually Miami is slightly ahead but it doesn’t show up that way.  And 48 Temple is just 0.48 behind both of them, with 49 UCLA another 1.32 behind Temple.  So it’s very close for the last few spots.  And the teams ranked 40 through 45 aren’t really that far ahead.  So we’ve got some excitement there.  10 teams for 8 spots.

Unfortunately that’s where the cheering ends.  After 49 UCLA, the next closest team fighting for an at large bid is 51 Richmond, which is a whopping 7.59 behind UCLA and about 9.5 behind Indiana, the last team in.  That is further from Indiana as the Hoosiers are from Purdue, and the Boilermakers are ranked 39th and are even above the last 4 byes   So the Spiders are not close at all.  In fact, Richmond will likely still need several good wins to move above the line.  2 more, at least.

Some of the other teams shown below the line are done for the season, and nowhere near the cut line on a numerical basis.  Texas A&M, Illinois, ODU, and Stanford are all in the first 8 teams out, but none have a reasonable shot to catch up since they can’t win any more games.  They will all be in the NIT.

Tulsa is the other team that is still playing that could make a run at an at large, but it would require a run to the American final and a lot of other teams losing their next games.

I’ll update this analysis on Saturday morning, and will also look at the 1 seed battle and a projected NIT field.

Regan Index – 3/13/2015 (includes games through Thursday 3/12/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 13, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Wisconsin , Duke , Villanova
2 Virginia , Arizona , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Baylor , Oklahoma , Iowa St , North Carolina
4 Notre Dame , Maryland , Northern Iowa , Louisville
5 Utah , Georgetown , Providence , West Virginia
6 Michigan St , Wichita St , Butler , Arkansas
7 SMU , Xavier , VA Commonwealth , Ohio St
8 Oregon , Iowa , Davidson , San Diego St
9 LSU , Cincinnati , NC State , St John’s
10 Texas , Georgia , Purdue , Oklahoma St
11 Boise St , Colorado St , BYU , Mississippi/Dayton
12 Miami FL/Indiana , SF Austin , Valparaiso , Wofford
13 C Michigan , Louisiana Tech , Yale , UC Davis
14 Northeastern , Georgia St , E Washington , Albany NY
15 NC Central , New Mexico St , Belmont , North Florida
16 N Dakota St , Coastal Car , TX Southern/Manhattan , Lafayette/Robert Morris

Last 4 BYES Oklahoma St , Boise St , Colorado St , BYU
Last 4 IN Mississippi , Dayton , Miami FL , Indiana
1st 4 OUT Temple , UCLA , Richmond , Texas A&M
2nd 4 OUT Illinois , Old Dominion , Tulsa , Stanford

Regan Index – 3/12/2015 (includes games through Wednesday 3/11/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 12, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Wisconsin , Villanova , Duke
2 Virginia , Arizona , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Oklahoma , Baylor , Iowa St , Notre Dame
4 Louisville , Maryland , Northern Iowa , North Carolina
5 Georgetown , West Virginia , Butler , Utah
6 Michigan St , Providence , Wichita St , Arkansas
7 Iowa , VA Commonwealth , SMU , St John’s
8 Davidson , Xavier , NC State , LSU
9 Oregon , Ohio St , Texas , Georgia
10 San Diego St , Cincinnati , Oklahoma St , Purdue
11 Mississippi , Boise St , BYU , Colorado St/Dayton
12 Miami FL/Temple , Old Dominion , Valparaiso , SF Austin
13 Wofford , C Michigan , Yale , UC Davis
14 Georgia St , Northeastern , E Washington , Albany NY
15 NC Central , New Mexico St , North Florida , Belmont
16 N Dakota St , Coastal Car , Manhattan/TX Southern , Lafayette/Robert Morris

Last 4 BYES Purdue , Mississippi , Boise St , BYU
Last 4 IN Colorado St , Dayton , Miami FL , Temple
1st 4 OUT Indiana , Texas A&M , Illinois , UCLA
2nd 4 OUT Richmond , Stanford , Vanderbilt , Tulsa

Regan Index – 3/10/2015 (includes games through Monday 3/9/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 10, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Wisconsin , Villanova , Duke
2 Virginia , Arizona , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Oklahoma , Iowa St , Baylor , Notre Dame
4 Northern Iowa , Louisville , Maryland , North Carolina
5 West Virginia , Georgetown , Butler , Utah
6 Michigan St , Providence , Wichita St , Arkansas
7 Iowa , VA Commonwealth , SMU , St John’s
8 Davidson , Xavier , LSU , Oregon
9 Ohio St , NC State , Georgia , San Diego St
10 Texas , Cincinnati , Oklahoma St , Purdue
11 Mississippi , BYU , Boise St , Dayton/Colorado St
12 Miami FL/Temple , Old Dominion , SF Austin , Valparaiso
13 Wofford , Buffalo , Yale , UC Davis
14 Georgia St , Northeastern , E Washington , Albany NY
15 S Dakota St , New Mexico St , NC Central , North Florida
16 Belmont , Coastal Car , Manhattan/St Francis NY , TX Southern/Lafayette

Last 4 BYES Purdue , Mississippi , BYU , Boise St
Last 4 IN Dayton , Colorado St , Miami FL , Temple
1st 4 OUT Indiana , Texas A&M , Illinois , UCLA
2nd 4 OUT Richmond , Stanford , Vanderbilt , Kansas St

Regan Index – 3/8/2015 (includes games through Saturday 3/7/2015)

The projected field as of today, March 8, 2015 (in order from left to right on each seed line.)  Assumed automatic bids are the team from each conference that is highest in the index.

Full numerical output of the Regan Index

The top 100 teams in the Quality Wins Ranking

1 Kentucky , Villanova , Virginia , Duke
2 Wisconsin , Arizona , Kansas , Gonzaga
3 Baylor , Oklahoma , Iowa St , Louisville
4 Notre Dame , Maryland , Northern Iowa , North Carolina
5 West Virginia , Wichita St , Utah , Georgetown
6 Providence , Butler , Arkansas , Michigan St
7 Iowa , VA Commonwealth , St John’s , SMU
8 Ohio St , Oregon , LSU , Xavier
9 San Diego St , Davidson , Georgia , NC State
10 Texas , Oklahoma St , Purdue , Cincinnati
11 Mississippi , BYU , Dayton , Boise St/Colorado St
12 Miami FL/Temple , Old Dominion , SF Austin , Valparaiso
13 Wofford , Buffalo , Harvard , Iona
14 UC Davis , Georgia St , E Washington , Northeastern
15 Albany NY , New Mexico St , NC Central , S Dakota St
16 Belmont , North Florida , St Francis NY/Coastal Car , TX Southern/Bucknell

Last 4 BYES Cincinnati , Mississippi , BYU , Dayton
Last 4 IN Boise St , Colorado St , Miami FL , Temple
1st 4 OUT Indiana , Texas A&M , UCLA , Illinois
2nd 4 OUT Richmond , Tulsa , Stanford , Kansas St